AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#99Away
Louisiana
0-0 · AVR 40.0
33p
#135Home
Charlotte
0-0 · AVR 23.3
22p
UL 77%23% CLT
Spread
UL -10.9
Total
55
Moneyline
UL-337CLT+337
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UL advantageevenCLT advantage →
UL throw
UL +19
UL run
UL +6
CLT throw
UL pass rush #152
even
CLT run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UL throws
Shelton Sampson Jr.
vs
Shamar McIntosh
X · UL
CB1 · CLT
74.3
64.5
UL +10
when CLT throws
Jaden Barnes
vs
Brent Gordon Jr.
X · CLT
CB1 · UL
56.9
71.4
UL +15
when CLT runs
Chance Williams
vs
Conor McPherson
RB · CLT
MLB · UL
51.5
54.2
dead even
over the middle
Lane Wadle
vs
Kerry Wilson
TE · CLT
FS · UL
45.2
57.5
UL +12
off the edge· hunting Winfield
J'Marion Gooch
vs
Curtis Simpson
LT · UL
EDGE · CLT
40.5
57.5
CLT +17
when UL runs
Darrell Smith
vs
Kadin Schmitz
RB · UL
MLB · CLT
45.8
46.6
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisiana
WRShelton Sampson Jr.
74.335/777
CBBrent Gordon Jr.
71.4207/1427
SCollin Jacob
60.3473/1427
SMaurion Eleam
59.4497/1427
LBConor McPherson
54.2404/878
QBLunch Winfield
52.2133/308
Charlotte
DBShamar McIntosh
64.5373/1427
WRJaden Barnes
56.9144/777
DBJameel Croft Jr.
53.9652/1427
RBChance Williams
51.5252/514
WRTank Boston
49.1337/777
QBCole Gonzales
48.2182/308

Projected margin

80% between -28 and 6
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUL +10.995% interval: -34.8 to 1380% interval: -28.3 to 6.4-28+6UL wins 77%CLT wins 23%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UL 35–21 CLTCLT 18–60 UL neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCLT 21–56 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLT 25–53 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLT 28–49 UL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLT 32–46 UL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLT 35–42 UL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCLT 39–39 UL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCLT 42–35 UL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLT 46–32 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLT 14–56 UL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLT 18–53 UL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLT 21–49 UL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCLT 25–46 UL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLT 28–42 UL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCLT 32–39 UL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCLT 35–35 UL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLT 39–32 UL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLT 42–28 UL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLT 11–53 UL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLT 14–49 UL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLT 18–46 UL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCLT 21–42 UL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCLT 25–39 UL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCLT 28–35 UL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCLT 32–32 UL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCLT 35–28 UL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCLT 39–25 UL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLT 7–49 UL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLT 11–46 UL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCLT 14–42 UL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLT 18–39 UL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCLT 21–35 UL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCLT 25–32 UL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCLT 28–28 UL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCLT 32–25 UL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCLT 35–21 UL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLT 4–46 UL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLT 7–42 UL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLT 11–39 UL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCLT 14–35 UL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCLT 18–32 UL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCLT 21–28 UL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCLT 25–25 UL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCLT 28–21 UL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCLT 32–18 UL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLT 0–42 UL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLT 4–39 UL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLT 7–35 UL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCLT 11–32 UL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCLT 14–28 UL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCLT 18–25 UL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCLT 21–21 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCLT 25–18 UL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCLT 28–14 UL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CLT 0–35 UL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLT 4–32 UL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCLT 7–28 UL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLT 11–25 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCLT 14–21 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCLT 18–18 UL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLT 21–14 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLT 25–11 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalUL +42UL +28UL +14PKCLT +14margin →