AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
The Bell
#93Away
Southern Miss
0-0 · AVR 42.2
25p
#88Home
Tulane
0-0 · AVR 44.4
30p
USM 37%63% TULN
Spread
TULN -4.9
Total
55
Moneyline
USM+171TULN-171
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USM advantageevenTULN advantage →
USM throw
TULN +18
USM run
even
TULN throw
TULN QB #139TULN WR #63
USM +28
TULN run
TULN backs #82
TULN +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TULN throws
Anthony Brown-Stephens
vs
Ishmael Ibraheem
X · TULN
CB1 · USM
59.8
95.9
USM +36
off the edge· hunting Chriss-Gremillion
John Bock II
vs
Jameer Lewis
LT · TULN
EDGE · USM
70.5
72.6
dead even
when USM throws
Mario Sanders
vs
Macho Stevenson
X · USM
CB1 · TULN
52.8
81.9
TULN +29
when TULN runs
Jamauri McClure
vs
Melvin Spriggs
RB · TULN
MLB · USM
55.6
70.3
USM +15
over the middle
Dawson Johnson
vs
MaLik Caswell
TE · TULN
FS · USM
61.2
60.1
dead even
when USM runs
Robert Briggs
vs
Chris Rodgers
RB · USM
MLB · TULN
52.7
68.3
TULN +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Southern Miss
CBIshmael Ibraheem
95.94/1427
DBKolby Peavy
72.4184/1427
LBMelvin Spriggs
70.3140/878
DBCannon McClain
64.0385/1427
LBMathis Haygood
60.8270/878
SMaLik Caswell
60.1479/1427
Tulane
CBMacho Stevenson
81.971/1427
LBChris Rodgers
68.3172/878
SDorion Jackson
66.4324/1427
TEDawson Johnson
61.242/287
WRAnthony Brown-Stephens
59.8117/777
DBKajuan Banks
59.7492/1427

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTULN +4.995% interval: -19 to 28.880% interval: -12.4 to 22.3-12+22USM wins 37%TULN wins 63%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TULN 32–25 USMTULN 28–49 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 32–46 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTULN 35–42 USM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTULN 39–39 USM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTULN 42–35 USM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTULN 46–32 USM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTULN 49–28 USM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTULN 53–25 USM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 56–21 USM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTULN 25–46 USM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 28–42 USM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTULN 32–39 USM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTULN 35–35 USM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTULN 39–32 USM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTULN 42–28 USM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTULN 46–25 USM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTULN 49–21 USM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTULN 53–18 USM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTULN 21–42 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTULN 25–39 USM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTULN 28–35 USM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTULN 32–32 USM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTULN 35–28 USM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTULN 39–25 USM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTULN 42–21 USM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTULN 46–18 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTULN 49–14 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 18–39 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTULN 21–35 USM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTULN 25–32 USM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTULN 28–28 USM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTULN 32–25 USM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTULN 35–21 USM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTULN 39–18 USM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTULN 42–14 USM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTULN 46–11 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 14–35 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTULN 18–32 USM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTULN 21–28 USM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTULN 25–25 USM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTULN 28–21 USM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTULN 32–18 USM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTULN 35–14 USM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTULN 39–11 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTULN 42–7 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 11–32 USM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 14–28 USM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTULN 18–25 USM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTULN 21–21 USM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTULN 25–18 USM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTULN 28–14 USM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTULN 32–11 USM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTULN 35–7 USM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTULN 39–4 USM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTULN 7–28 USM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTULN 11–25 USM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTULN 14–21 USM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTULN 18–18 USM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTULN 21–14 USM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTULN 25–11 USM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTULN 28–7 USM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTULN 32–4 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTULN 35–0 USM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSM +21USM +7TULN +7TULN +21TULN +35margin →