AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 PM
#88Away
Tulane
0-0 · AVR 44.4
29p
#118Home
Army
0-0 · AVR 32.8
24p
TULN 64%36% ARMY
Spread
TULN -5.3
Total
52
Moneyline
TULN-178ARMY+178
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TULN advantageevenARMY advantage →
TULN throw
TULN QB #139TULN WR #63
TULN +19
TULN run
TULN backs #82
TULN +53
ARMY throw
ARMY protection #8
ARMY +20
ARMY run
ARMY line #8ARMY backs #113
ARMY +32

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hellums
Kyle Kloska
vs
Derrick Shepard Jr.
LT · ARMY
EDGE · TULN
85.4
57.2
ARMY +28
when ARMY throws
Brady Anderson
vs
Macho Stevenson
X · ARMY
CB1 · TULN
60.0
81.9
TULN +22
off the edge· hunting Chriss-Gremillion
John Bock II
vs
Jack Bousum
LT · TULN
EDGE · ARMY
70.5
58.5
TULN +12
when ARMY runs
Carson Smith
vs
Chris Rodgers
RB · ARMY
MLB · TULN
51.4
68.3
TULN +17
when TULN throws
Anthony Brown-Stephens
vs
Stephen Nnadozie
X · TULN
CB1 · ARMY
59.8
59.7
dead even
over the middle
Parker Poloskey
vs
E'zaiah Shine
TE · ARMY
FS · TULN
54.8
58.9
TULN +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tulane
CBMacho Stevenson
81.971/1427
LBChris Rodgers
68.3172/878
SDorion Jackson
66.4324/1427
TEDawson Johnson
61.242/287
WRAnthony Brown-Stephens
59.8117/777
DBKajuan Banks
59.7492/1427
Army
QBCale Hellums
64.257/308
WRBrady Anderson
60.0114/777
SStephen Nnadozie
59.7495/1427
TEParker Poloskey
54.892/287
CBJaydan Mayes
52.8682/1427
RBCarson Smith
51.4255/514

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Tulane
opponent
Army
home+8.4
Tulsa#110
-4.4away
home-0.9
Memphis#63
-13.7away
away+8.0
Rice#127
+0.2away
away-4.7
South Florida#78
-7.5home

Projected margin

80% between -23 and 12
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTULN +5.395% interval: -29.2 to 18.680% interval: -22.7 to 12.1-23+12TULN wins 64%ARMY wins 36%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TULN 28–21 ARMYARMY 18–53 TULN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARMY 21–49 TULN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARMY 25–46 TULN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARMY 28–42 TULN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 32–39 TULN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARMY 35–35 TULN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARMY 39–32 TULN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARMY 42–28 TULN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARMY 46–25 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARMY 14–49 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 18–46 TULN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARMY 21–42 TULN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARMY 25–39 TULN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARMY 28–35 TULN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARMY 32–32 TULN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARMY 35–28 TULN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 39–25 TULN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARMY 42–21 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARMY 11–46 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 14–42 TULN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARMY 18–39 TULN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 21–35 TULN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARMY 25–32 TULN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARMY 28–28 TULN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARMY 32–25 TULN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARMY 35–21 TULN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARMY 39–18 TULN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARMY 7–42 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 11–39 TULN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARMY 14–35 TULN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 18–32 TULN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARMY 21–28 TULN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARMY 25–25 TULN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARMY 28–21 TULN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARMY 32–18 TULN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARMY 35–14 TULN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARMY 4–39 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARMY 7–35 TULN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARMY 11–32 TULN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARMY 14–28 TULN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARMY 18–25 TULN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARMY 21–21 TULN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARMY 25–18 TULN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 28–14 TULN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARMY 32–11 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARMY 0–35 TULN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARMY 4–32 TULN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARMY 7–28 TULN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARMY 11–25 TULN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARMY 14–21 TULN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARMY 18–18 TULN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARMY 21–14 TULN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARMY 25–11 TULN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 28–7 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ARMY 0–28 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARMY 4–25 TULN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARMY 7–21 TULN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARMY 11–18 TULN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARMY 14–14 TULN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARMY 18–11 TULN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARMY 21–7 TULN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARMY 25–4 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalTULN +35TULN +21TULN +7ARMY +7ARMY +21margin →