AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#135Away
Charlotte
0-0 · AVR 23.3
23p
#113Home
Temple
0-0 · AVR 34.9
33p
CLT 23%77% TEM
Spread
TEM -10.8
Total
56
Moneyline
CLT+329TEM-329
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CLT advantageevenTEM advantage →
CLT throw
CLT +5
CLT run
even
TEM throw
TEM WR #46TEM protection #113
TEM +21
TEM run
TEM +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TEM throws
JoJo Bermudez
vs
Shamar McIntosh
X · TEM
CB1 · CLT
64.8
64.5
dead even
when CLT throws
Jaden Barnes
vs
Adrian Laing
X · CLT
CB1 · TEM
56.9
72.1
TEM +15
when CLT runs
Chance Williams
vs
Curly Ordonez
RB · CLT
MLB · TEM
51.5
61.6
TEM +10
when TEM runs
Hunter Smith
vs
Kadin Schmitz
RB · TEM
MLB · CLT
55.8
46.6
TEM +9
over the middle
Peter Clarke
vs
CJ Clinkscales Jr.
TE · TEM
FS · CLT
65.5
33.0
TEM +33
off the edge· hunting Smolik
Eric King
vs
Curtis Simpson
LT · TEM
EDGE · CLT
37.2
57.5
CLT +20

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Charlotte
DBShamar McIntosh
64.5373/1427
WRJaden Barnes
56.9144/777
DBJameel Croft Jr.
53.9652/1427
RBChance Williams
51.5252/514
WRTank Boston
49.1337/777
QBCole Gonzales
48.2182/308
Temple
CBAdrian Laing
72.1188/1427
TEPeter Clarke
65.523/287
WRJoJo Bermudez
64.884/777
WRColin Chase
63.295/777
CBBryson Goodwin
61.7436/1427
LBCurly Ordonez
61.6260/878

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Charlotte
opponent
Temple
away-9.3
UAB#121
+4.0home
home-12.8
East Carolina#77
-9.4away
home-11.0
Navy#82
-7.7away
home-14.7
Memphis#63
-11.4away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTEM +10.895% interval: -13.1 to 34.780% interval: -6.6 to 28.2-7+28CLT wins 23%TEM wins 77%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TEM 35–21 CLTTEM 32–46 CLT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 35–42 CLT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEM 39–39 CLT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEM 42–35 CLT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 46–32 CLT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 49–28 CLT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEM 53–25 CLT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEM 56–21 CLT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEM 60–18 CLT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTEM 28–42 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEM 32–39 CLT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEM 35–35 CLT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 39–32 CLT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEM 42–28 CLT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEM 46–25 CLT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEM 49–21 CLT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEM 53–18 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEM 56–14 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 25–39 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 28–35 CLT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEM 32–32 CLT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEM 35–28 CLT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEM 39–25 CLT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEM 42–21 CLT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEM 46–18 CLT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEM 49–14 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 53–11 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 21–35 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 25–32 CLT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEM 28–28 CLT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEM 32–25 CLT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTEM 35–21 CLT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTEM 39–18 CLT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEM 42–14 CLT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEM 46–11 CLT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEM 49–7 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 18–32 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 21–28 CLT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEM 25–25 CLT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEM 28–21 CLT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEM 32–18 CLT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEM 35–14 CLT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEM 39–11 CLT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEM 42–7 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 46–4 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 14–28 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEM 18–25 CLT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEM 21–21 CLT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 25–18 CLT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEM 28–14 CLT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEM 32–11 CLT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEM 35–7 CLT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEM 39–4 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEM 42–0 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 11–25 CLT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 14–21 CLT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEM 18–18 CLT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEM 21–14 CLT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 25–11 CLT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 28–7 CLT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEM 32–4 CLT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEM 35–0 CLT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalCLT +14PKTEM +14TEM +28TEM +42margin →