AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 12:30 AM
#118Away
Army
0-0 · AVR 32.8
24p
#110Home
Tulsa
0-0 · AVR 35.4
29p
ARMY 38%62% TLSA
Spread
TLSA -4.4
Total
53
Moneyline
ARMY+162TLSA-162
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARMY advantageevenTLSA advantage →
ARMY throw
ARMY protection #8
ARMY +12
ARMY run
ARMY line #8ARMY backs #113
ARMY +9
TLSA throw
TLSA +19
TLSA run
TLSA line #95TLSA backs #36
TLSA +35

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hellums
Kyle Kloska
vs
Thomas Davis
LT · ARMY
EDGE · TLSA
85.4
79.7
ARMY +6
when ARMY throws
Brady Anderson
vs
Elijah Green
X · ARMY
CB1 · TLSA
60.0
72.9
TLSA +13
when ARMY runs
Carson Smith
vs
Chris Thompson Jr.
RB · ARMY
MLB · TLSA
51.4
78.3
TLSA +27
off the edge· hunting Hayes
Malachi Preciado
vs
Jack Bousum
LT · TLSA
EDGE · ARMY
69.1
58.5
TLSA +11
over the middle
Parker Poloskey
vs
Korbyn Green
TE · ARMY
FS · TLSA
54.8
61.5
TLSA +7
when TLSA throws
Jimmy Calloway
vs
Stephen Nnadozie
X · TLSA
CB1 · ARMY
53.4
59.7
ARMY +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Army
QBCale Hellums
64.257/308
WRBrady Anderson
60.0114/777
SStephen Nnadozie
59.7495/1427
TEParker Poloskey
54.892/287
CBJaydan Mayes
52.8682/1427
RBCarson Smith
51.4255/514
Tulsa
LBChris Thompson Jr.
78.374/878
CBElijah Green
72.9178/1427
RBTrequan Jones
69.059/514
SZach Williams
62.2422/1427
DBDevin Robinson
62.1425/1427
LBDevin Hightower
58.9313/878

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Army
opponent
Tulsa
home-5.3
Tulane#88
-8.4away
home-0.5
Florida Atlantic#108
+1.5home
away+0.2
Rice#127
+2.1away
neutral-7.4
Navy#82
-8.0away

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTLSA +4.495% interval: -19.5 to 28.380% interval: -13 to 21.8-13+22ARMY wins 38%TLSA wins 62%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TLSA 32–25 ARMYTLSA 28–49 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTLSA 32–46 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTLSA 35–42 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTLSA 39–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTLSA 42–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 46–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTLSA 49–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTLSA 53–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTLSA 56–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTLSA 25–46 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 28–42 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTLSA 32–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 35–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTLSA 39–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTLSA 42–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTLSA 46–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTLSA 49–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTLSA 53–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 21–42 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTLSA 25–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTLSA 28–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTLSA 32–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTLSA 35–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTLSA 39–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTLSA 42–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTLSA 46–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTLSA 49–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 18–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTLSA 21–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTLSA 25–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTLSA 28–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTLSA 32–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTLSA 35–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTLSA 39–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTLSA 42–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTLSA 46–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTLSA 14–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTLSA 18–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTLSA 21–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTLSA 25–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTLSA 28–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTLSA 32–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTLSA 35–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTLSA 39–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTLSA 42–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTLSA 11–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTLSA 14–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTLSA 18–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTLSA 21–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTLSA 25–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTLSA 28–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTLSA 32–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTLSA 35–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTLSA 39–4 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 7–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 11–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTLSA 14–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 18–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTLSA 21–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTLSA 25–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTLSA 28–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTLSA 32–4 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTLSA 35–0 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalARMY +21ARMY +7TLSA +7TLSA +21TLSA +35margin →