AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Fri Oct 30 · 11:00 PM
#88Away
Tulane
0-0 · AVR 44.4
32p
#135Home
Charlotte
0-0 · AVR 23.3
21p
TULN 79%21% CLT
Spread
TULN -11.4
Total
54
Moneyline
TULN-366CLT+366
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TULN advantageevenCLT advantage →
TULN throw
TULN QB #139TULN WR #63
TULN +19
TULN run
TULN backs #82
TULN +50
CLT throw
TULN +18
CLT run
TULN +15

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CLT throws
Jaden Barnes
vs
Macho Stevenson
X · CLT
CB1 · TULN
56.9
81.9
TULN +25
off the edge· hunting Chriss-Gremillion
John Bock II
vs
Curtis Simpson
LT · TULN
EDGE · CLT
70.5
57.5
TULN +13
when TULN throws
Anthony Brown-Stephens
vs
Shamar McIntosh
X · TULN
CB1 · CLT
59.8
64.5
CLT +5
when CLT runs
Chance Williams
vs
Chris Rodgers
RB · CLT
MLB · TULN
51.5
68.3
TULN +17
over the middle
Lane Wadle
vs
E'zaiah Shine
TE · CLT
FS · TULN
45.2
58.9
TULN +14
when TULN runs
Jamauri McClure
vs
Kadin Schmitz
RB · TULN
MLB · CLT
55.6
46.6
TULN +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tulane
CBMacho Stevenson
81.971/1427
LBChris Rodgers
68.3172/878
SDorion Jackson
66.4324/1427
TEDawson Johnson
61.242/287
WRAnthony Brown-Stephens
59.8117/777
DBKajuan Banks
59.7492/1427
Charlotte
DBShamar McIntosh
64.5373/1427
WRJaden Barnes
56.9144/777
DBJameel Croft Jr.
53.9652/1427
RBChance Williams
51.5252/514
WRTank Boston
49.1337/777
QBCole Gonzales
48.2182/308

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Tulane
opponent
Charlotte
home+0.8
North Texas#80
-18.1away
home+8.4
Tulsa#110
-10.5away
home-0.9
Memphis#63
-14.7home

Projected margin

80% between -29 and 6
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTULN +11.495% interval: -35.3 to 12.580% interval: -28.7 to 6-29+6TULN wins 79%CLT wins 21%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TULN 35–21 CLTCLT 18–60 TULN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCLT 21–56 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLT 25–53 TULN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLT 28–49 TULN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCLT 32–46 TULN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCLT 35–42 TULN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCLT 39–39 TULN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCLT 42–35 TULN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCLT 46–32 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLT 14–56 TULN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLT 18–53 TULN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLT 21–49 TULN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCLT 25–46 TULN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLT 28–42 TULN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCLT 32–39 TULN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCLT 35–35 TULN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCLT 39–32 TULN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCLT 42–28 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLT 11–53 TULN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLT 14–49 TULN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLT 18–46 TULN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCLT 21–42 TULN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCLT 25–39 TULN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCLT 28–35 TULN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCLT 32–32 TULN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCLT 35–28 TULN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCLT 39–25 TULN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLT 7–49 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLT 11–46 TULN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCLT 14–42 TULN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLT 18–39 TULN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCLT 21–35 TULN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCLT 25–32 TULN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCLT 28–28 TULN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCLT 32–25 TULN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCLT 35–21 TULN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLT 4–46 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLT 7–42 TULN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCLT 11–39 TULN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLT 14–35 TULN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCLT 18–32 TULN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCLT 21–28 TULN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCLT 25–25 TULN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCLT 28–21 TULN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCLT 32–18 TULN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLT 0–42 TULN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLT 4–39 TULN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLT 7–35 TULN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCLT 11–32 TULN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCLT 14–28 TULN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCLT 18–25 TULN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCLT 21–21 TULN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCLT 25–18 TULN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLT 28–14 TULN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CLT 0–35 TULN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLT 4–32 TULN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLT 7–28 TULN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCLT 11–25 TULN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCLT 14–21 TULN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCLT 18–18 TULN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLT 21–14 TULN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLT 25–11 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalTULN +42TULN +28TULN +14PKCLT +14margin →