AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#135Away
Charlotte
0-0 · AVR 23.3
25p
#121Home
UAB
0-0 · AVR 31.9
34p
CLT 26%74% UAB
Spread
UAB -9.3
Total
59
Moneyline
CLT+281UAB-281
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CLT advantageevenUAB advantage →
CLT throw
even
CLT run
UAB +13
UAB throw
UAB +24
UAB run
UAB +33

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CLT runs
Chance Williams
vs
Muaaz Byard
RB · CLT
MLB · UAB
51.5
64.0
UAB +12
when UAB throws
AJ Johnson
vs
Shamar McIntosh
X · UAB
CB1 · CLT
49.4
64.5
CLT +15
when CLT throws
Jaden Barnes
vs
Guylijah Theodule
X · CLT
CB1 · UAB
56.9
56.5
dead even
off the edge· hunting Burton
Calib Perez
vs
Curtis Simpson
LT · UAB
EDGE · CLT
50.0
57.5
CLT +7
when UAB runs
Bam McReynolds
vs
Kadin Schmitz
RB · UAB
MLB · CLT
57.9
46.6
UAB +11
over the middle
Lane Wadle
vs
Darrell Sweeting
TE · CLT
FS · UAB
45.2
42.1
CLT +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Charlotte
DBShamar McIntosh
64.5373/1427
WRJaden Barnes
56.9144/777
DBJameel Croft Jr.
53.9652/1427
RBChance Williams
51.5252/514
WRTank Boston
49.1337/777
QBCole Gonzales
48.2182/308
UAB
LBMuaaz Byard
64.0227/878
QBRyder Burton
58.276/308
RBBam McReynolds
57.9131/514
DBGuylijah Theodule
56.5577/1427
DBKris Wokomah
56.1590/1427
DBJeremiah Jordan
53.8658/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Charlotte
opponent
UAB
away-18.1
North Texas#80
-11.2away
home-12.8
East Carolina#77
-5.9home
home-11.0
Navy#82
-4.1home
away-10.8
Temple#113
-4.0away
home-10.9
Louisiana#99
-9.1away
home-14.7
Memphis#63
-12.9away

Projected margin

80% between -8 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUAB +9.395% interval: -14.6 to 33.380% interval: -8 to 26.7-8+27CLT wins 26%UAB wins 74%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UAB 32–25 CLTUAB 28–49 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 32–46 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 35–42 CLT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUAB 39–39 CLT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUAB 42–35 CLT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUAB 46–32 CLT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUAB 49–28 CLT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUAB 53–25 CLT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUAB 56–21 CLT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUAB 25–46 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 28–42 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUAB 32–39 CLT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUAB 35–35 CLT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUAB 39–32 CLT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUAB 42–28 CLT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUAB 46–25 CLT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUAB 49–21 CLT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUAB 53–18 CLT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUAB 21–42 CLT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUAB 25–39 CLT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUAB 28–35 CLT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUAB 32–32 CLT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUAB 35–28 CLT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUAB 39–25 CLT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUAB 42–21 CLT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUAB 46–18 CLT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUAB 49–14 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 18–39 CLT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUAB 21–35 CLT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUAB 25–32 CLT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUAB 28–28 CLT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUAB 32–25 CLT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUAB 35–21 CLT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUAB 39–18 CLT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUAB 42–14 CLT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUAB 46–11 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 14–35 CLT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUAB 18–32 CLT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUAB 21–28 CLT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUAB 25–25 CLT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUAB 28–21 CLT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUAB 32–18 CLT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUAB 35–14 CLT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUAB 39–11 CLT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUAB 42–7 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 11–32 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 14–28 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 18–25 CLT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUAB 21–21 CLT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUAB 25–18 CLT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUAB 28–14 CLT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUAB 32–11 CLT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUAB 35–7 CLT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUAB 39–4 CLT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUAB 7–28 CLT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUAB 11–25 CLT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUAB 14–21 CLT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUAB 18–18 CLT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUAB 21–14 CLT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUAB 25–11 CLT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUAB 28–7 CLT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUAB 32–4 CLT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUAB 35–0 CLT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalCLT +21CLT +7UAB +7UAB +21UAB +35margin →