AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#110Away
Tulsa
0-0 · AVR 35.4
22p
#88Home
Tulane
0-0 · AVR 44.4
30p
TLSA 29%71% TULN
Spread
TULN -8.4
Total
53
Moneyline
TLSA+247TULN-247
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TLSA advantageevenTULN advantage →
TLSA throw
TULN +5
TLSA run
TLSA line #95TLSA backs #36
TLSA +18
TULN throw
TULN QB #139TULN WR #63
TLSA +14
TULN run
TULN backs #82
TULN +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Chriss-Gremillion
John Bock II
vs
Thomas Davis
LT · TULN
EDGE · TLSA
70.5
79.7
TLSA +9
when TLSA runs
Trequan Jones
vs
Chris Rodgers
RB · TLSA
MLB · TULN
69.0
68.3
dead even
when TLSA throws
Jimmy Calloway
vs
Macho Stevenson
X · TLSA
CB1 · TULN
53.4
81.9
TULN +29
when TULN runs
Jamauri McClure
vs
Chris Thompson Jr.
RB · TULN
MLB · TLSA
55.6
78.3
TLSA +23
when TULN throws
Anthony Brown-Stephens
vs
Elijah Green
X · TULN
CB1 · TLSA
59.8
72.9
TLSA +13
off the edge· hunting Hayes
Malachi Preciado
vs
Derrick Shepard Jr.
LT · TLSA
EDGE · TULN
69.1
57.2
TLSA +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tulsa
LBChris Thompson Jr.
78.374/878
CBElijah Green
72.9178/1427
RBTrequan Jones
69.059/514
SZach Williams
62.2422/1427
DBDevin Robinson
62.1425/1427
LBDevin Hightower
58.9313/878
Tulane
CBMacho Stevenson
81.971/1427
LBChris Rodgers
68.3172/878
SDorion Jackson
66.4324/1427
TEDawson Johnson
61.242/287
WRAnthony Brown-Stephens
59.8117/777
DBKajuan Banks
59.7492/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Tulsa
opponent
Tulane
away-14.7
UTSA#62
-3.9home
away+2.1
Rice#127
+8.0away
home-5.1
North Texas#80
+0.8home
home+10.5
Charlotte#135
+11.4away
home+4.4
Army#118
+5.3away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTULN +8.495% interval: -15.5 to 32.380% interval: -9 to 25.8-9+26TLSA wins 29%TULN wins 71%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TULN 32–25 TLSATULN 28–49 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTULN 32–46 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 35–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTULN 39–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTULN 42–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTULN 46–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTULN 49–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTULN 53–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTULN 56–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 25–46 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTULN 28–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTULN 32–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTULN 35–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTULN 39–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTULN 42–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTULN 46–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTULN 49–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTULN 53–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTULN 21–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 25–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTULN 28–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTULN 32–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTULN 35–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTULN 39–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTULN 42–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTULN 46–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTULN 49–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 18–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 21–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTULN 25–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTULN 28–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTULN 32–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTULN 35–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTULN 39–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTULN 42–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTULN 46–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 14–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 18–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTULN 21–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTULN 25–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTULN 28–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTULN 32–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTULN 35–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTULN 39–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTULN 42–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 11–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTULN 14–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTULN 18–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTULN 21–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTULN 25–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTULN 28–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTULN 32–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTULN 35–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTULN 39–4 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTULN 7–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTULN 11–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTULN 14–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTULN 18–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTULN 21–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTULN 25–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTULN 28–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTULN 32–4 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTULN 35–0 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalTLSA +21TLSA +7TULN +7TULN +21TULN +35margin →