AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#121Away
UAB
0-0 · AVR 31.9
28p
#113Home
Temple
0-0 · AVR 34.9
32p
UAB 40%60% TEM
Spread
TEM -4.0
Total
61
Moneyline
UAB+153TEM-153
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UAB advantageevenTEM advantage →
UAB throw
UAB +23
UAB run
UAB +35
TEM throw
TEM WR #46TEM protection #113
TEM +17
TEM run
UAB +4

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UAB throws
AJ Johnson
vs
Adrian Laing
X · UAB
CB1 · TEM
49.4
72.1
TEM +23
when TEM throws
JoJo Bermudez
vs
Guylijah Theodule
X · TEM
CB1 · UAB
64.8
56.5
TEM +8
when TEM runs
Hunter Smith
vs
Muaaz Byard
RB · TEM
MLB · UAB
55.8
64.0
UAB +8
when UAB runs
Bam McReynolds
vs
Curly Ordonez
RB · UAB
MLB · TEM
57.9
61.6
TEM +4
over the middle
Peter Clarke
vs
Darrell Sweeting
TE · TEM
FS · UAB
65.5
42.1
TEM +23
off the edge· hunting Burton
Calib Perez
vs
Quante Gillians
LT · UAB
EDGE · TEM
50.0
50.2
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UAB
LBMuaaz Byard
64.0227/878
QBRyder Burton
58.276/308
RBBam McReynolds
57.9131/514
DBGuylijah Theodule
56.5577/1427
DBKris Wokomah
56.1590/1427
DBJeremiah Jordan
53.8658/1427
Temple
CBAdrian Laing
72.1188/1427
TEPeter Clarke
65.523/287
WRJoJo Bermudez
64.884/777
WRColin Chase
63.295/777
CBBryson Goodwin
61.7436/1427
LBCurly Ordonez
61.6260/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UAB
opponent
Temple
home-4.1
Navy#82
-7.7away
home-5.9
East Carolina#77
-9.4away
away-12.9
Memphis#63
-11.4away
home+9.3
Charlotte#135
+10.8home
away-11.7
South Florida#78
-10.3away

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTEM +4.095% interval: -19.9 to 27.980% interval: -13.4 to 21.4-13+21UAB wins 40%TEM wins 60%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TEM 35–28 UABTEM 32–53 UAB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 35–49 UAB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEM 39–46 UAB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEM 42–42 UAB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTEM 46–39 UAB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTEM 49–35 UAB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEM 53–32 UAB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEM 56–28 UAB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 60–25 UAB neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTEM 28–49 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEM 32–46 UAB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEM 35–42 UAB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEM 39–39 UAB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEM 42–35 UAB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEM 46–32 UAB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 49–28 UAB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEM 53–25 UAB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEM 56–21 UAB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 25–46 UAB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEM 28–42 UAB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEM 32–39 UAB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEM 35–35 UAB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTEM 39–32 UAB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTEM 42–28 UAB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEM 46–25 UAB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEM 49–21 UAB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 53–18 UAB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 21–42 UAB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 25–39 UAB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEM 28–35 UAB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEM 32–32 UAB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEM 35–28 UAB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTEM 39–25 UAB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEM 42–21 UAB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEM 46–18 UAB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEM 49–14 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEM 18–39 UAB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 21–35 UAB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEM 25–32 UAB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEM 28–28 UAB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEM 32–25 UAB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTEM 35–21 UAB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEM 39–18 UAB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEM 42–14 UAB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEM 46–11 UAB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 14–35 UAB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEM 18–32 UAB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEM 21–28 UAB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEM 25–25 UAB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEM 28–21 UAB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEM 32–18 UAB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEM 35–14 UAB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEM 39–11 UAB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 42–7 UAB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 11–32 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEM 14–28 UAB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEM 18–25 UAB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEM 21–21 UAB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEM 25–18 UAB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEM 28–14 UAB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTEM 32–11 UAB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEM 35–7 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEM 39–4 UAB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes84777063564942totalUAB +21UAB +7TEM +7TEM +21TEM +35margin →