AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#135Away
Charlotte
0-0 · AVR 23.3
22p
#110Home
Tulsa
0-0 · AVR 35.4
32p
CLT 24%76% TLSA
Spread
TLSA -10.5
Total
54
Moneyline
CLT+321TLSA-321
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CLT advantageevenTLSA advantage →
CLT throw
TLSA +27
CLT run
TLSA +39
TLSA throw
TLSA +20
TLSA run
TLSA line #95TLSA backs #36
TLSA +32

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CLT throws
Jaden Barnes
vs
Elijah Green
X · CLT
CB1 · TLSA
56.9
72.9
TLSA +16
when CLT runs
Chance Williams
vs
Chris Thompson Jr.
RB · CLT
MLB · TLSA
51.5
78.3
TLSA +27
off the edge· hunting Hayes
Malachi Preciado
vs
Curtis Simpson
LT · TLSA
EDGE · CLT
69.1
57.5
TLSA +12
when TLSA throws
Jimmy Calloway
vs
Shamar McIntosh
X · TLSA
CB1 · CLT
53.4
64.5
CLT +11
when TLSA runs
Trequan Jones
vs
Kadin Schmitz
RB · TLSA
MLB · CLT
69.0
46.6
TLSA +22
off the edge· hunting Gonzales
Luke Sandy
vs
Thomas Davis
LT · CLT
EDGE · TLSA
27.2
79.7
TLSA +52

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Charlotte
DBShamar McIntosh
64.5373/1427
WRJaden Barnes
56.9144/777
DBJameel Croft Jr.
53.9652/1427
RBChance Williams
51.5252/514
WRTank Boston
49.1337/777
QBCole Gonzales
48.2182/308
Tulsa
LBChris Thompson Jr.
78.374/878
CBElijah Green
72.9178/1427
RBTrequan Jones
69.059/514
SZach Williams
62.2422/1427
DBDevin Robinson
62.1425/1427
LBDevin Hightower
58.9313/878

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Charlotte
opponent
Tulsa
away-18.1
North Texas#80
-5.1home
home-11.4
Tulane#88
-8.4away
home-11.0
Navy#82
-8.0away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTLSA +10.595% interval: -13.4 to 34.480% interval: -6.9 to 27.9-7+28CLT wins 24%TLSA wins 76%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TLSA 32–25 CLTTLSA 32–46 CLT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTLSA 35–42 CLT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTLSA 39–39 CLT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTLSA 42–35 CLT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 46–32 CLT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 49–28 CLT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTLSA 53–25 CLT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTLSA 56–21 CLT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTLSA 60–18 CLT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTLSA 28–42 CLT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 32–39 CLT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTLSA 35–35 CLT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTLSA 39–32 CLT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTLSA 42–28 CLT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTLSA 46–25 CLT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTLSA 49–21 CLT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTLSA 53–18 CLT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 56–14 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 25–39 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTLSA 28–35 CLT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTLSA 32–32 CLT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTLSA 35–28 CLT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTLSA 39–25 CLT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTLSA 42–21 CLT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTLSA 46–18 CLT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTLSA 49–14 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTLSA 53–11 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 21–35 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTLSA 25–32 CLT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTLSA 28–28 CLT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTLSA 32–25 CLT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTLSA 35–21 CLT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTLSA 39–18 CLT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTLSA 42–14 CLT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTLSA 46–11 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTLSA 49–7 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 18–32 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTLSA 21–28 CLT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTLSA 25–25 CLT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTLSA 28–21 CLT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTLSA 32–18 CLT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTLSA 35–14 CLT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTLSA 39–11 CLT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTLSA 42–7 CLT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTLSA 46–4 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 14–28 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTLSA 18–25 CLT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTLSA 21–21 CLT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTLSA 25–18 CLT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTLSA 28–14 CLT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTLSA 32–11 CLT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTLSA 35–7 CLT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTLSA 39–4 CLT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTLSA 42–0 CLT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 11–25 CLT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 14–21 CLT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTLSA 18–18 CLT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 21–14 CLT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTLSA 25–11 CLT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTLSA 28–7 CLT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 32–4 CLT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTLSA 35–0 CLT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalCLT +14PKTLSA +14TLSA +28TLSA +42margin →