AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 5:00 PM
#119Away
Wyoming
0-0 · AVR 32.7
23p
#107Home
Central Michigan
0-0 · AVR 37.6
28p
WYO 38%62% CMU
Spread
CMU -4.4
Total
51
Moneyline
WYO+164CMU-164
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WYO advantageevenCMU advantage →
WYO throw
CMU +51
WYO run
WYO line #121WYO backs #71
CMU +5
CMU throw
WYO coverage #68WYO pass rush #138
even
CMU run
CMU +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CMU throws
Langston Lewis
vs
Ian Bell
X · CMU
CB1 · WYO
53.7
77.1
WYO +23
when CMU runs
Brock Townsend
vs
Anthony Beavers
RB · CMU
MLB · WYO
57.2
65.7
WYO +8
when WYO throws
Charlie Coenen
vs
Jaion Jackson
X · WYO
CB1 · CMU
41.3
76.0
CMU +35
when WYO runs
Diore Hubbard
vs
Jeremiah Alston
RB · WYO
MLB · CMU
57.2
47.4
WYO +10
off the edge· hunting Flores
John Iannuzzi
vs
Jayden Williams
LT · CMU
EDGE · WYO
61.4
43.0
CMU +18
off the edge· hunting Sims
Nathan Geiger
vs
Nathan VanTimmeren
LT · WYO
EDGE · CMU
17.6
85.9
CMU +68

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wyoming
CBIan Bell
77.1123/1427
SDesman Hearns
70.9212/1427
LBAnthony Beavers
65.7201/878
DBDavid Leonard
58.4524/1427
RBDiore Hubbard
57.2137/514
QBLandon Sims
42.9244/308

also out — T. Hasselbeck (QB), T. Nystrom (WR)

Central Michigan
DBJaion Jackson
76.0140/1427
DBKyle Krebs
68.1278/1427
DBKeyton Jones
64.4377/1427
DBTysen Campbell
63.1404/1427
RBBrock Townsend
57.2138/514
WRLangston Lewis
53.7198/777

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCMU +4.495% interval: -19.5 to 28.380% interval: -13 to 21.8-13+22WYO wins 38%CMU wins 62%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CMU 28–21 WYOCMU 25–46 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCMU 28–42 WYO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCMU 32–39 WYO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCMU 35–35 WYO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCMU 39–32 WYO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCMU 42–28 WYO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCMU 46–25 WYO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCMU 49–21 WYO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCMU 53–18 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 21–42 WYO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCMU 25–39 WYO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCMU 28–35 WYO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCMU 32–32 WYO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCMU 35–28 WYO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCMU 39–25 WYO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCMU 42–21 WYO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCMU 46–18 WYO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 49–14 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 18–39 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCMU 21–35 WYO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCMU 25–32 WYO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCMU 28–28 WYO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCMU 32–25 WYO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCMU 35–21 WYO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCMU 39–18 WYO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCMU 42–14 WYO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCMU 46–11 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCMU 14–35 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCMU 18–32 WYO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCMU 21–28 WYO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCMU 25–25 WYO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCMU 28–21 WYO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCMU 32–18 WYO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCMU 35–14 WYO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCMU 39–11 WYO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCMU 42–7 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCMU 11–32 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCMU 14–28 WYO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCMU 18–25 WYO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCMU 21–21 WYO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCMU 25–18 WYO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCMU 28–14 WYO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCMU 32–11 WYO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCMU 35–7 WYO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 39–4 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 7–28 WYO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCMU 11–25 WYO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCMU 14–21 WYO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCMU 18–18 WYO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCMU 21–14 WYO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCMU 25–11 WYO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCMU 28–7 WYO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCMU 32–4 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCMU 35–0 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 4–25 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCMU 7–21 WYO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCMU 11–18 WYO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCMU 14–14 WYO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCMU 18–11 WYO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCMU 21–7 WYO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCMU 25–4 WYO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCMU 28–0 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalWYO +21WYO +7CMU +7CMU +21CMU +35margin →