AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#134Away
Northern Illinois
0-0 · AVR 24.8
23p
#131Home
Georgia State
0-0 · AVR 26.7
29p
NIU 34%66% GAST
Spread
GAST -6.3
Total
53
Moneyline
NIU+198GAST-198
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NIU advantageevenGAST advantage →
NIU throw
NIU protection #66
NIU +11
NIU run
NIU +32
GAST throw
GAST +21
GAST run
GAST +15

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when GAST throws
Jaylin Marshall
vs
Malik Armstrong
X · GAST
CB1 · NIU
44.1
59.3
NIU +15
when NIU throws
DeAree Rogers
vs
Deuce Walker
X · NIU
CB1 · GAST
54.9
42.6
NIU +12
over the middle
Grant Hollier
vs
James Little IV
TE · GAST
FS · NIU
61.3
36.0
GAST +25
when NIU runs
Telly Johnson Jr.
vs
Jaden Kelly
RB · NIU
MLB · GAST
56.7
39.6
NIU +17
off the edge· hunting Brown
Deylin Hasert
vs
Fawzy Omotoso
LT · GAST
EDGE · NIU
54.8
40.7
GAST +14
off the edge· hunting Macon
Jacob Welch
vs
Kelze Howard
LT · NIU
EDGE · GAST
45.0
46.4
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Northern Illinois
SMalik Armstrong
59.3501/1427
RBTelly Johnson Jr.
56.7148/514
WRDeAree Rogers
54.9181/777
CBRomelo Walker
51.8708/1427
QBJalen Macon
39.4284/308
WRRickey Taylor Jr.
38.8654/777
Georgia State
TEGrant Hollier
61.340/287
QBCameran Brown
58.277/308
RBDennis Murray Jr.
47.2376/514
WRJaylin Marshall
44.1490/777
WRDerrick Avery Jr.
42.9530/777
SDeuce Walker
42.6961/1427

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKGAST +6.395% interval: -17.6 to 30.280% interval: -11.1 to 23.6-11+24NIU wins 34%GAST wins 66%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ GAST 32–25 NIUGAST 28–49 NIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGAST 32–46 NIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGAST 35–42 NIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGAST 39–39 NIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGAST 42–35 NIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGAST 46–32 NIU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGAST 49–28 NIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGAST 53–25 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGAST 56–21 NIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGAST 25–46 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 28–42 NIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGAST 32–39 NIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGAST 35–35 NIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGAST 39–32 NIU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGAST 42–28 NIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGAST 46–25 NIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGAST 49–21 NIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGAST 53–18 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 21–42 NIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGAST 25–39 NIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGAST 28–35 NIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGAST 32–32 NIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGAST 35–28 NIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGAST 39–25 NIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGAST 42–21 NIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGAST 46–18 NIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGAST 49–14 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 18–39 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGAST 21–35 NIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGAST 25–32 NIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGAST 28–28 NIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGAST 32–25 NIU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGAST 35–21 NIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGAST 39–18 NIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGAST 42–14 NIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGAST 46–11 NIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGAST 14–35 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGAST 18–32 NIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGAST 21–28 NIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGAST 25–25 NIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGAST 28–21 NIU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGAST 32–18 NIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGAST 35–14 NIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGAST 39–11 NIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGAST 42–7 NIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGAST 11–32 NIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGAST 14–28 NIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGAST 18–25 NIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGAST 21–21 NIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGAST 25–18 NIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGAST 28–14 NIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGAST 32–11 NIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGAST 35–7 NIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGAST 39–4 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 7–28 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 11–25 NIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGAST 14–21 NIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGAST 18–18 NIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGAST 21–14 NIU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGAST 25–11 NIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGAST 28–7 NIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGAST 32–4 NIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGAST 35–0 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalNIU +21NIU +7GAST +7GAST +21GAST +35margin →