AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 7:30 PM
#134Away
Northern Illinois
0-0 · AVR 24.8
19p
#119Home
Wyoming
0-0 · AVR 32.7
29p
NIU 27%73% WYO
Spread
WYO -9.0
Total
48
Moneyline
NIU+275WYO-275
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NIU advantageevenWYO advantage →
NIU throw
NIU protection #66WYO coverage #68
WYO +20
NIU run
NIU +22
WYO throw
NIU +8
WYO run
WYO line #121WYO backs #71
WYO +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NIU throws
DeAree Rogers
vs
Ian Bell
X · NIU
CB1 · WYO
54.9
77.1
WYO +22
when NIU runs
Telly Johnson Jr.
vs
Anthony Beavers
RB · NIU
MLB · WYO
56.7
65.7
WYO +9
when WYO throws
Charlie Coenen
vs
Malik Armstrong
X · WYO
CB1 · NIU
41.3
59.3
NIU +18
over the middle
Jason Fowler
vs
Jaden DaCosta
TE · NIU
FS · WYO
34.5
57.2
WYO +23
off the edge· hunting Macon
Jacob Welch
vs
Jayden Williams
LT · NIU
EDGE · WYO
45.0
43.0
dead even
when WYO runs
Diore Hubbard
vs
Broderick Windham
RB · WYO
MLB · NIU
57.2
21.4
WYO +36

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Northern Illinois
SMalik Armstrong
59.3501/1427
RBTelly Johnson Jr.
56.7148/514
WRDeAree Rogers
54.9181/777
CBRomelo Walker
51.8708/1427
QBJalen Macon
39.4284/308
WRRickey Taylor Jr.
38.8654/777
Wyoming
CBIan Bell
77.1123/1427
SDesman Hearns
70.9212/1427
LBAnthony Beavers
65.7201/878
DBDavid Leonard
58.4524/1427
RBDiore Hubbard
57.2137/514
QBLandon Sims
42.9244/308

also out — T. Hasselbeck (QB), T. Nystrom (WR)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Northern Illinois
opponent
Wyoming
away-17.8
North Dakota State#81
-11.2away
home-11.8
Hawai'i#90
-5.2home
home-10.4
Air Force#98
-3.9home
away-21.8
UNLV#70
-15.3away
away-6.6
San José State#123
-0.1away
home+1.4
UTEP#133
+3.0away

Projected margin

80% between -8 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWYO +9.095% interval: -14.9 to 32.980% interval: -8.3 to 26.4-8+26NIU wins 27%WYO wins 73%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WYO 28–21 NIUWYO 25–46 NIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWYO 28–42 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWYO 32–39 NIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWYO 35–35 NIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWYO 39–32 NIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWYO 42–28 NIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWYO 46–25 NIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWYO 49–21 NIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWYO 53–18 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 21–42 NIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWYO 25–39 NIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWYO 28–35 NIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWYO 32–32 NIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWYO 35–28 NIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWYO 39–25 NIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWYO 42–21 NIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWYO 46–18 NIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWYO 49–14 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWYO 18–39 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 21–35 NIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWYO 25–32 NIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWYO 28–28 NIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWYO 32–25 NIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWYO 35–21 NIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWYO 39–18 NIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWYO 42–14 NIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWYO 46–11 NIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWYO 14–35 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 18–32 NIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWYO 21–28 NIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWYO 25–25 NIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWYO 28–21 NIU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWYO 32–18 NIU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWYO 35–14 NIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWYO 39–11 NIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWYO 42–7 NIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWYO 11–32 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 14–28 NIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWYO 18–25 NIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWYO 21–21 NIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWYO 25–18 NIU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWYO 28–14 NIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWYO 32–11 NIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWYO 35–7 NIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWYO 39–4 NIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWYO 7–28 NIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWYO 11–25 NIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWYO 14–21 NIU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWYO 18–18 NIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWYO 21–14 NIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWYO 25–11 NIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWYO 28–7 NIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWYO 32–4 NIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWYO 35–0 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWYO 4–25 NIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWYO 7–21 NIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWYO 11–18 NIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWYO 14–14 NIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWYO 18–11 NIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWYO 21–7 NIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWYO 25–4 NIU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWYO 28–0 NIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalNIU +21NIU +7WYO +7WYO +21WYO +35margin →