AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#119Away
Wyoming
0-0 · AVR 32.7
27p
#133Home
UTEP
0-0 · AVR 26.2
24p
WYO 58%42% UTEP
Spread
WYO -3.0
Total
50
Moneyline
WYO-139UTEP+139
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WYO advantageevenUTEP advantage →
WYO throw
UTEP +30
WYO run
WYO line #121WYO backs #71
UTEP +27
UTEP throw
WYO coverage #68WYO pass rush #138
WYO +34
UTEP run
WYO +8

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WYO runs
Diore Hubbard
vs
Shay Smith
RB · WYO
MLB · UTEP
57.2
80.0
UTEP +23
when UTEP runs
Tavorus Jones
vs
Anthony Beavers
RB · UTEP
MLB · WYO
51.0
65.7
WYO +15
when UTEP throws
Marcus Torres
vs
Ian Bell
X · UTEP
CB1 · WYO
36.6
77.1
WYO +40
when WYO throws
Charlie Coenen
vs
Kode Lowe
X · WYO
CB1 · UTEP
41.3
61.7
UTEP +20
over the middle
Kyle Frendt
vs
Jaime Guerrero
TE · WYO
FS · UTEP
35.2
57.7
UTEP +22
over the middle
Judah Ezinwa
vs
Jaden DaCosta
TE · UTEP
FS · WYO
35.7
57.2
WYO +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wyoming
CBIan Bell
77.1123/1427
SDesman Hearns
70.9212/1427
LBAnthony Beavers
65.7201/878
DBDavid Leonard
58.4524/1427
RBDiore Hubbard
57.2137/514
QBLandon Sims
42.9244/308

also out — T. Hasselbeck (QB), T. Nystrom (WR)

UTEP
LBShay Smith
80.054/878
LBJayden Wilson
78.868/878
SKode Lowe
61.7435/1427
CBJustin Content
59.8491/1427
SXavier Smith
58.7516/1427
SJaime Guerrero
57.7541/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Wyoming
opponent
UTEP
home-3.9
Air Force#98
-14.4away
home-4.1
New Mexico#86
-14.6away
home+9.0
Northern Illinois#134
-1.4away
away-11.2
North Dakota State#81
-16.7away
home-5.2
Hawai'i#90
-10.7home
away-0.1
San José State#123
-0.6home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWYO +3.095% interval: -26.9 to 20.980% interval: -20.4 to 14.4-20+14WYO wins 58%UTEP wins 42%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTEP 25–25 WYOUTEP 21–49 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTEP 25–46 WYO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTEP 28–42 WYO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTEP 32–39 WYO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTEP 35–35 WYO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTEP 39–32 WYO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTEP 42–28 WYO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTEP 46–25 WYO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTEP 49–21 WYO neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUTEP 18–46 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTEP 21–42 WYO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTEP 25–39 WYO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTEP 28–35 WYO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTEP 32–32 WYO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTEP 35–28 WYO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTEP 39–25 WYO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTEP 42–21 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTEP 46–18 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTEP 14–42 WYO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTEP 18–39 WYO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTEP 21–35 WYO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTEP 25–32 WYO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTEP 28–28 WYO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTEP 32–25 WYO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTEP 35–21 WYO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTEP 39–18 WYO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTEP 42–14 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTEP 11–39 WYO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTEP 14–35 WYO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTEP 18–32 WYO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTEP 21–28 WYO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTEP 25–25 WYO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTEP 28–21 WYO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTEP 32–18 WYO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTEP 35–14 WYO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTEP 39–11 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTEP 7–35 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTEP 11–32 WYO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTEP 14–28 WYO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTEP 18–25 WYO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTEP 21–21 WYO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTEP 25–18 WYO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTEP 28–14 WYO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTEP 32–11 WYO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTEP 35–7 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTEP 4–32 WYO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTEP 7–28 WYO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTEP 11–25 WYO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTEP 14–21 WYO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTEP 18–18 WYO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTEP 21–14 WYO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTEP 25–11 WYO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTEP 28–7 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTEP 32–4 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTEP 0–28 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTEP 4–25 WYO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTEP 7–21 WYO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTEP 11–18 WYO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTEP 14–14 WYO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTEP 18–11 WYO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTEP 21–7 WYO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTEP 25–4 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTEP 28–0 WYO neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalWYO +28WYO +14PKUTEP +14UTEP +28margin →