Passing
No comparison
- STBK offense
- —
- BALL defense
- #132
EPA comparison
—
0.45
#132
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 2:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
STBK 20.6%79.4% BALL
- Projected margin
- BALL by 13.7
- Projected total
- 55
- 80% outcome range
- STBK 7 to BALL 35
- Win probability
- BALL 79.4%
FinalSTBK 17 · BALL 41model had +13.7, off by 10.3
Current team profiles
Stony Brook
Ball StateWhen Stony Brook has the ball
Rushing
No comparison
- STBK offense
- —
- BALL defense
- #133
EPA comparison
—
0.25
#133
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- STBK offense
- #15
- BALL defense
- #114
Success rates
49%
#15
45%
#114
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#21
0.32
#136
EPA / play
0.22
#41
1.44
#135
Explosiveness
—
13%
#113
Havoc
When Ball State has the ball
Passing
No comparison
- STBK defense
- —
- BALL offense
- #92
EPA comparison
—
0.13
#92
Pass EPA
Rushing
No comparison
- STBK defense
- —
- BALL offense
- #100
EPA comparison
—
0.03
#100
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- STBK defense
- #33
- BALL offense
- #128
Success rates
42%
#33
36%
#128
Success rate
More metrics
0.14
#77
0.05
#107
EPA / play
0.22
#86
1.38
#13
Explosiveness
—
18%
#125
Havoc
Current key players
Stony BrookDLKhalid Bueno
26 tkl · 11.5 TFL · 7.5 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 83.2
- Pressures
- 29
- Pass-rush snaps
- 146
- Missed tackles
- 5
- Forced fumbles
- 1
90.23/1549
DBJoseph Garcia
49 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 74.4
- Coverage
- 88.4
- Targets allowed
- 12
- Rec allowed
- 7
- Yards allowed
- 74
- Passer rating allowed
- 41.7
- Missed tackles
- 7
86.28/1765
DBTakai Takahashi
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 75.8
- Coverage
- 79.5
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 2
- Yards allowed
- 3
- Passer rating allowed
- 79.2
- Missed tackles
- 1
81.830/1765
RBCJ Hester
483 yds · 10 TD · 5.5 YPC
78.253/631
DBRyan Barrett
23 tkl · 4 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 67.2
- Coverage
- 78.1
- Targets allowed
- 17
- Rec allowed
- 11
- Yards allowed
- 48
- Passer rating allowed
- 88.1
- Missed tackles
- 4
76.3102/1765
KMichael Mannino
3/3 FG · 0%
75.632/416
Ball StateQBKeldric Luster
662 yds · 5 TD · 3 INT
67.4185/729
RBElijah Jackson
25 yds · 0 TD · 6.2 YPC
80.668/1044
DBGabe Aramboles
5 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 70.6
- Coverage
- 71.7
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 6
- Passer rating allowed
- 91.7
- Missed tackles
- 0
74.2220/2969
LBKaleb Stewart
23 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 80.9
- Coverage
- 60.9
- Pressures
- 4
- Pass-rush snaps
- 7
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
72.9260/1796
DBQuentavius Scandrett
25 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 66.2
- Coverage
- 74.3
- Targets allowed
- 9
- Rec allowed
- 9
- Yards allowed
- 60
- Passer rating allowed
- 94.4
- Missed tackles
- 3
70.9387/2969
LBLayton Starks
12 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.6
- Coverage
- 66.6
- Pressures
- 8
- Pass-rush snaps
- 66
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
68.2443/1796
Availability reports · 6
- Isaiah Thacker · WRout · 2026-10-10
Thacker is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.
- Derion Talbert · WRout · 2026-09-26
Talbert is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- Cole Coonrod · TEout · 2026-10-10
Coonrod is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Jalen Bonds · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Bonds is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bowling Green on Saturday, October 17th.
- Mason Riggins · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Riggins is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remain to seen if he will play against the Bowling Green on Saturday, October 17th.
- Char'Rese Breveard · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Breveard is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Bowling Green on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
STBKStony Brook
BALLBall State
vs
Offense
65.1
#91 of 125
QB
Quarterback
67.4
#112 of 138
70.7
#70 of 126
RB
Running backs
80.2
#35 of 138
63.9
#110 of 126
WR
Receivers
64.8
#130 of 138
61.6
#79 of 124
TE
Tight ends
58.7
#130 of 138
61.7
#101 of 125
OL
Offensive line
66.4
#86 of 138
Defense
73.2
#39 of 126
DL
Defensive line
68.0
#121 of 138
70.7
#69 of 126
LB
Linebackers
68.5
#116 of 138
76.9
#8 of 126
DB
Secondary
67.8
#118 of 138