CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 1:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
COLG 19.8%80.2% CMU
Projected margin
CMU by 14.4
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
COLG 7 to CMU 35
Win probability
CMU 80.2%
FinalCOLG 10 · CMU 13model had +14.4, off by 11.4

Current team profiles

Colgate
Central Michigan

When Colgate has the ball

Passing

No comparison
COLG offense
—
CMU defense
#71
EPA comparison
—
0.15
#71
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
COLG offense
—
CMU defense
#107
EPA comparison
—
0.14
#107
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
COLG offense
#28
CMU defense
#126
Success rates
46%
#28
47%
#126
Success rate
More metrics
0.15
#46
0.15
#108
EPA / play
0.20
#73
1.11
#24
Explosiveness
—
15%
#90
Havoc

When Central Michigan has the ball

Passing

No comparison
COLG defense
—
CMU offense
#130
EPA comparison
—
-0.06
#130
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
COLG defense
—
CMU offense
#45
EPA comparison
—
0.16
#45
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
COLG defense
#45
CMU offense
#119
Success rates
43%
#45
38%
#119
Success rate
More metrics
-0.01
#10
0.06
#103
EPA / play
0.20
#42
1.24
#66
Explosiveness
—
14%
#50
Havoc

Current key players

Colgate
QBJake Stearney
1077 yds · 9 TD · 8 INT
76.362/370
WRMatt Fogler
38 rec · 599 yds · 6 TD
84.09/1229
LBChristian Magliacano
45 tkl · 9.0 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.5
Coverage
76.8
Pressures
11
Pass-rush snaps
46
Missed tackles
8
Forced fumbles
0
80.339/1054
RBDanny Shaban
529 yds · 4 TD · 5.5 YPC
79.342/631
DBJustyn Toler
17 tkl · 4 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.1
Coverage
78.7
Targets allowed
22
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
84
Passer rating allowed
55.9
Missed tackles
5
78.862/1765
LBTrooper Price
58 tkl · 6.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.7
Coverage
70.8
Pressures
10
Pass-rush snaps
43
Missed tackles
6
Forced fumbles
0
78.750/1054
Central Michigan
QBAngel Flores
201 yds · 1 TD · 2 INT
76.4101/729
DBCoen Ali
10 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
81.2
Coverage
88.0
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
23
Passer rating allowed
46.3
Missed tackles
2
88.114/2969
DBJustin Taylor
27 tkl · 4 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.6
Coverage
89.0
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
27
Passer rating allowed
11.5
Missed tackles
2
84.826/2969
RBJayden Clerveaux
219 yds · 1 TD · 5.9 YPC
77.6123/1044
DBKameran Hayward
4 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.2
Coverage
77.3
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
33
Passer rating allowed
27.1
Missed tackles
0
75.6172/2969
TEGavin Spillers
1 rec · 8 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
51.1
Run blocking
70.6
Penalties
0
71.772/1017
Availability reports · 2
  • J. Allen · TEout · 2026-09-15

    VanWetzinga is sidelined with a knee injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Rusty VanWetzinga IV · FBQues. · 2026-10-10

    VanWetzinga is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Broncos on Saturday, October 17

Position units

Position-unit comparison

COLG
CMU
vs
Offense
76.3
#48 of 125
QB
76.4
#76 of 138
74.9
#44 of 126
RB
73.2
#94 of 138
69.4
#61 of 126
WR
64.3
#133 of 138
59.2
#100 of 124
TE
71.7
#53 of 138
65.3
#55 of 125
OL
65.5
#92 of 138
Defense
68.9
#83 of 126
DL
70.5
#99 of 138
76.9
#16 of 126
LB
67.5
#123 of 138
71.9
#58 of 126
DB
78.4
#8 of 138
Common opponents