AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#136Away
Ball State
0-0 · AVR 22.6
25p
#128Home
Kent State
0-0 · AVR 27.2
30p
BALL 36%64% KENT
Spread
KENT -5.2
Total
55
Moneyline
BALL+179KENT-179
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BALL advantageevenKENT advantage →
BALL throw
KENT +5
BALL run
KENT +23
KENT throw
KENT QB #55KENT protection #112
KENT +21
KENT run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when KENT runs
Jakorion Caffey
vs
Jared Badie
RB · KENT
MLB · BALL
53.3
60.1
BALL +7
when BALL throws
Jabari Smith Jr.
vs
Davion Pritchard
X · BALL
CB1 · KENT
47.0
59.4
KENT +12
when BALL runs
Johnny Thompson Jr.
vs
Hayden Dawahare
RB · BALL
MLB · KENT
49.3
53.9
KENT +5
when KENT throws
Da'Realyst Clark
vs
Quentavius Scandrett
X · KENT
CB1 · BALL
44.9
55.4
BALL +10
over the middle
Terik Mulder
vs
Derek Fields
TE · KENT
FS · BALL
47.9
33.1
KENT +15
off the edge· hunting Luster
Chris Hood
vs
Darian Blachewicz
LT · BALL
EDGE · KENT
12.8
65.9
KENT +53

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ball State
LBJared Badie
60.1282/878
DBQuentavius Scandrett
55.4609/1427
DBWillizhuan Yates
53.6666/1427
QBKeldric Luster
53.0122/308
RBJohnny Thompson Jr.
49.3310/514
WRJabari Smith Jr.
47.0410/777
Kent State
QBDru DeShields
64.556/308
DBDavion Pritchard
59.4498/1427
LBHayden Dawahare
53.9407/878
RBJakorion Caffey
53.3196/514
SClinton Robinson
49.2795/1427
TETerik Mulder
47.9148/287

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ball State
opponent
Kent State
away-37.9
Ohio State#1
-49.7away
away-14.5
Ohio#101
-6.8home
away-10.8
Bowling Green#114
-8.1away
home-12.1
Sacramento State#111
-14.4away

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKENT +5.295% interval: -18.7 to 29.180% interval: -12.2 to 22.6-12+23BALL wins 36%KENT wins 64%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KENT 32–25 BALLKENT 28–49 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENT 32–46 BALL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKENT 35–42 BALL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKENT 39–39 BALL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENT 42–35 BALL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENT 46–32 BALL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKENT 49–28 BALL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENT 53–25 BALL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENT 56–21 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENT 25–46 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENT 28–42 BALL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKENT 32–39 BALL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENT 35–35 BALL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKENT 39–32 BALL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKENT 42–28 BALL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKENT 46–25 BALL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKENT 49–21 BALL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENT 53–18 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENT 21–42 BALL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENT 25–39 BALL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKENT 28–35 BALL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKENT 32–32 BALL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKENT 35–28 BALL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKENT 39–25 BALL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKENT 42–21 BALL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENT 46–18 BALL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKENT 49–14 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENT 18–39 BALL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKENT 21–35 BALL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKENT 25–32 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKENT 28–28 BALL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKENT 32–25 BALL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKENT 35–21 BALL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKENT 39–18 BALL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENT 42–14 BALL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENT 46–11 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENT 14–35 BALL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKENT 18–32 BALL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKENT 21–28 BALL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKENT 25–25 BALL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKENT 28–21 BALL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKENT 32–18 BALL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKENT 35–14 BALL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENT 39–11 BALL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENT 42–7 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENT 11–32 BALL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENT 14–28 BALL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENT 18–25 BALL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENT 21–21 BALL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKENT 25–18 BALL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKENT 28–14 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKENT 32–11 BALL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKENT 35–7 BALL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENT 39–4 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENT 7–28 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENT 11–25 BALL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENT 14–21 BALL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKENT 18–18 BALL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENT 21–14 BALL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKENT 25–11 BALL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENT 28–7 BALL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKENT 32–4 BALL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKENT 35–0 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalBALL +21BALL +7KENT +7KENT +21KENT +35margin →