AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#115Away
Akron
0-0 · AVR 34.5
24p
#107Home
Central Michigan
0-0 · AVR 37.6
28p
AKR 39%61% CMU
Spread
CMU -4.1
Total
53
Moneyline
AKR+158CMU-158
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← AKR advantageevenCMU advantage →
AKR throw
CMU +22
AKR run
CMU linebackers #141
AKR +9
CMU throw
even
CMU run
CMU +29

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Flores
John Iannuzzi
vs
Cyrus Durham
LT · CMU
EDGE · AKR
61.4
81.4
AKR +20
when AKR throws
Marcel Williams
vs
Jaion Jackson
X · AKR
CB1 · CMU
54.0
76.0
CMU +22
off the edge· hunting Poffenbarger
Colin Lyons
vs
Nathan VanTimmeren
LT · AKR
EDGE · CMU
38.0
85.9
CMU +48
when CMU throws
Langston Lewis
vs
Zach Hobson
X · CMU
CB1 · AKR
53.7
69.2
AKR +15
when AKR runs
Jordan Gant
vs
Jeremiah Alston
RB · AKR
MLB · CMU
62.7
47.4
AKR +15
when CMU runs
Brock Townsend
vs
Cam Macon
RB · CMU
MLB · AKR
57.2
43.9
CMU +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Akron
CBZach Hobson
69.2258/1427
DBCatrell White
66.7316/1427
RBJordan Gant
62.789/514
DBIesa Jarmon
59.3500/1427
WRMarcel Williams
54.0192/777
WRKyan Mason
53.5205/777
Central Michigan
DBJaion Jackson
76.0140/1427
DBKyle Krebs
68.1278/1427
DBKeyton Jones
64.4377/1427
DBTysen Campbell
63.1404/1427
RBBrock Townsend
57.2138/514
WRLangston Lewis
53.7198/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Akron
opponent
Central Michigan
away-7.5
Miami (OH)#91
-0.9home
home+3.1
Buffalo#116
-0.4away
home-2.6
Ohio#101
-6.1away
home-5.9
Western Michigan#84
-4.3home
home+0.1
Eastern Michigan#112
-0.8neutral

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCMU +4.195% interval: -19.8 to 2880% interval: -13.3 to 21.5-13+22AKR wins 39%CMU wins 61%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CMU 32–25 AKRCMU 28–49 AKR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCMU 32–46 AKR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCMU 35–42 AKR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCMU 39–39 AKR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCMU 42–35 AKR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCMU 46–32 AKR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCMU 49–28 AKR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCMU 53–25 AKR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCMU 56–21 AKR neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCMU 25–46 AKR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCMU 28–42 AKR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCMU 32–39 AKR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCMU 35–35 AKR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCMU 39–32 AKR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCMU 42–28 AKR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCMU 46–25 AKR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCMU 49–21 AKR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCMU 53–18 AKR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 21–42 AKR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCMU 25–39 AKR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCMU 28–35 AKR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCMU 32–32 AKR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCMU 35–28 AKR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCMU 39–25 AKR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCMU 42–21 AKR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCMU 46–18 AKR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 49–14 AKR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 18–39 AKR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 21–35 AKR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCMU 25–32 AKR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCMU 28–28 AKR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCMU 32–25 AKR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCMU 35–21 AKR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCMU 39–18 AKR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCMU 42–14 AKR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCMU 46–11 AKR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCMU 14–35 AKR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 18–32 AKR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCMU 21–28 AKR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCMU 25–25 AKR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCMU 28–21 AKR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCMU 32–18 AKR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCMU 35–14 AKR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCMU 39–11 AKR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCMU 42–7 AKR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCMU 11–32 AKR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCMU 14–28 AKR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCMU 18–25 AKR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCMU 21–21 AKR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCMU 25–18 AKR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCMU 28–14 AKR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCMU 32–11 AKR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCMU 35–7 AKR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 39–4 AKR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 7–28 AKR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCMU 11–25 AKR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCMU 14–21 AKR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCMU 18–18 AKR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCMU 21–14 AKR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCMU 25–11 AKR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCMU 28–7 AKR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCMU 32–4 AKR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCMU 35–0 AKR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalAKR +21AKR +7CMU +7CMU +21CMU +35margin →