AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#112Away
Eastern Michigan
0-0 · AVR 35.0
37p
#138Home
Massachusetts
0-0 · AVR 11.0
18p
EMU 90%10% MASS
Spread
EMU -18.3
Total
55
Moneyline
EMU-854MASS+854
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← EMU advantageevenMASS advantage →
EMU throw
EMU +35
EMU run
EMU +20
MASS throw
EMU +11
MASS run
EMU +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when EMU throws
Harold Mack
vs
DD Snyder
X · EMU
CB1 · MASS
61.6
61.2
dead even
off the edge· hunting Kim
Tyler McMillan
vs
Andrew Depaepe
LT · EMU
EDGE · MASS
48.5
59.9
MASS +11
when MASS runs
Justin Williams-Thomas
vs
Barry Manning
RB · MASS
MLB · EMU
50.1
57.4
EMU +7
when EMU runs
Joey Mattord
vs
Timmy Hinspeter
RB · EMU
MLB · MASS
50.0
56.4
MASS +6
over the middle
Joshua Long
vs
Michael Robinson
TE · EMU
FS · MASS
61.5
41.6
EMU +20
when MASS throws
Elijah Pedro
vs
Bryce Llewellyn
X · MASS
CB1 · EMU
36.2
61.5
EMU +25

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Eastern Michigan
WRHarold Mack
61.6104/777
TEJoshua Long
61.536/287
DBBryce Llewellyn
61.5443/1427
QBNoah Kim
60.466/308
LBBarry Manning
57.4341/878
WRBenson Prosper
51.2279/777
Massachusetts
SDD Snyder
61.2452/1427
CBIsaiah Reed
59.2503/1427
LBTimmy Hinspeter
56.4366/878
LBTyler Martin
53.5415/878
RBJustin Williams-Thomas
50.1283/514
QBWilliam Watson III
47.3192/308

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Eastern Michigan
opponent
Massachusetts
home+15.5
Sacramento State#111
-28.7away
home-4.3
Toledo#73
-30.1away
away-0.1
Akron#115
-15.9home

Projected margin

80% between -36 and -1
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKEMU +18.395% interval: -42.2 to 5.680% interval: -35.7 to -0.9-36-1EMU wins 90%MASS wins 10%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ EMU 39–18 MASSMASS 14–63 EMU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMASS 18–60 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMASS 21–56 EMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMASS 25–53 EMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMASS 28–49 EMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMASS 32–46 EMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMASS 35–42 EMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMASS 39–39 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMASS 42–35 EMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMASS 11–60 EMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMASS 14–56 EMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMASS 18–53 EMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMASS 21–49 EMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMASS 25–46 EMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMASS 28–42 EMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMASS 32–39 EMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMASS 35–35 EMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMASS 39–32 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMASS 7–56 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMASS 11–53 EMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMASS 14–49 EMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMASS 18–46 EMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMASS 21–42 EMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMASS 25–39 EMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMASS 28–35 EMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMASS 32–32 EMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMASS 35–28 EMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMASS 4–53 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMASS 7–49 EMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMASS 11–46 EMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMASS 14–42 EMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMASS 18–39 EMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMASS 21–35 EMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMASS 25–32 EMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMASS 28–28 EMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMASS 32–25 EMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMASS 0–49 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMASS 4–46 EMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMASS 7–42 EMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMASS 11–39 EMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMASS 14–35 EMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMASS 18–32 EMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMASS 21–28 EMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMASS 25–25 EMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMASS 28–21 EMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MASS 0–42 EMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMASS 4–39 EMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMASS 7–35 EMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMASS 11–32 EMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMASS 14–28 EMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMASS 18–25 EMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMASS 21–21 EMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMASS 25–18 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MASS 0–35 EMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMASS 4–32 EMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMASS 7–28 EMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMASS 11–25 EMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMASS 14–21 EMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMASS 18–18 EMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMASS 21–14 EMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalEMU +49EMU +35EMU +21EMU +7MASS +7margin →