AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#101Away
Ohio
0-0 · AVR 39.2
32p
#128Home
Kent State
0-0 · AVR 27.2
25p
OHIO 68%32% KENT
Spread
OHIO -6.8
Total
57
Moneyline
OHIO-212KENT+213
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OHIO advantageevenKENT advantage →
OHIO throw
even
OHIO run
OHIO +32
KENT throw
KENT QB #55KENT protection #112
even
KENT run
OHIO +15

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OHIO runs
Duncan Brune
vs
Hayden Dawahare
RB · OHIO
MLB · KENT
63.3
53.9
OHIO +9
when KENT runs
Jakorion Caffey
vs
Michael Molnar
RB · KENT
MLB · OHIO
53.3
56.6
OHIO +3
when KENT throws
Da'Realyst Clark
vs
DJ Morton
X · KENT
CB1 · OHIO
44.9
62.9
OHIO +18
when OHIO throws
Dom Dorwart
vs
Davion Pritchard
X · OHIO
CB1 · KENT
48.0
59.4
KENT +11
over the middle
Terik Mulder
vs
Andrew Vera
TE · KENT
FS · OHIO
47.9
49.9
dead even
off the edge· hunting DeShields
Dustyn Morell
vs
Evan Herrmann
LT · KENT
EDGE · OHIO
24.4
60.3
OHIO +36

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ohio
RBDuncan Brune
63.382/514
SDJ Morton
62.9408/1427
SDJ Walker
61.2453/1427
CBKendall Bannister
59.8489/1427
LBMichael Molnar
56.6361/878
RBVictor Rosa
56.0155/514
Kent State
QBDru DeShields
64.556/308
DBDavion Pritchard
59.4498/1427
LBHayden Dawahare
53.9407/878
RBJakorion Caffey
53.3196/514
SClinton Robinson
49.2795/1427
TETerik Mulder
47.9148/287

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ohio
opponent
Kent State
home+5.3
Eastern Michigan#112
-9.0away
away-5.1
Sacramento State#111
-14.4away
home+14.5
Ball State#136
+5.2home
away+2.6
Akron#115
-1.6home
away-2.4
Miami (OH)#91
-6.6home

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOHIO +6.895% interval: -30.7 to 17.180% interval: -24.1 to 10.6-24+11OHIO wins 68%KENT wins 32%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OHIO 32–25 KENTKENT 21–56 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENT 25–53 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENT 28–49 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKENT 32–46 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENT 35–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKENT 39–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENT 42–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKENT 46–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENT 49–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENT 18–53 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENT 21–49 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENT 25–46 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENT 28–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKENT 32–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKENT 35–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKENT 39–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENT 42–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENT 46–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENT 14–49 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENT 18–46 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKENT 21–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENT 25–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKENT 28–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKENT 32–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKENT 35–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENT 39–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENT 42–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENT 11–46 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENT 14–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENT 18–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENT 21–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKENT 25–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesKENT 28–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKENT 32–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKENT 35–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENT 39–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENT 7–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENT 11–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKENT 14–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENT 18–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKENT 21–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKENT 25–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKENT 28–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENT 32–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENT 35–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENT 4–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENT 7–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENT 11–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKENT 14–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKENT 18–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKENT 21–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKENT 25–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENT 28–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENT 32–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENT 0–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENT 4–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKENT 7–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKENT 11–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENT 14–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENT 18–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENT 21–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKENT 25–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENT 28–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalOHIO +35OHIO +21OHIO +7KENT +7KENT +21margin →