AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#112Away
Eastern Michigan
0-0 · AVR 35.0
28p
#115Home
Akron
0-0 · AVR 34.5
28p
EMU 50%50% AKR
Spread
AKR -0.1
Total
55
Moneyline
EMU+100AKR+100
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← EMU advantageevenAKR advantage →
EMU throw
EMU +16
EMU run
EMU +17
AKR throw
AKR +15
AKR run
AKR +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when EMU throws
Harold Mack
vs
Zach Hobson
X · EMU
CB1 · AKR
61.6
69.2
AKR +8
off the edge· hunting Kim
Tyler McMillan
vs
Cyrus Durham
LT · EMU
EDGE · AKR
48.5
81.4
AKR +33
when AKR runs
Jordan Gant
vs
Barry Manning
RB · AKR
MLB · EMU
62.7
57.4
AKR +5
over the middle
Joshua Long
vs
Rodrick Hunter
TE · EMU
FS · AKR
61.5
55.4
EMU +6
when AKR throws
Marcel Williams
vs
Bryce Llewellyn
X · AKR
CB1 · EMU
54.0
61.5
EMU +7
off the edge· hunting Poffenbarger
Colin Lyons
vs
Quincy Byas
LT · AKR
EDGE · EMU
38.0
64.9
EMU +27

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Eastern Michigan
WRHarold Mack
61.6104/777
TEJoshua Long
61.536/287
DBBryce Llewellyn
61.5443/1427
QBNoah Kim
60.466/308
LBBarry Manning
57.4341/878
WRBenson Prosper
51.2279/777
Akron
CBZach Hobson
69.2258/1427
DBCatrell White
66.7316/1427
RBJordan Gant
62.789/514
DBIesa Jarmon
59.3500/1427
WRMarcel Williams
54.0192/777
WRKyan Mason
53.5205/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Eastern Michigan
opponent
Akron
home+9.0
Kent State#128
+1.6away
neutral+0.8
Central Michigan#107
-4.1away
away-5.3
Ohio#101
-2.6home
away-8.5
Western Michigan#84
-5.9home
away+18.3
Massachusetts#138
+15.9away

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAKR +0.195% interval: -23.8 to 2480% interval: -17.3 to 17.5-17+18EMU wins 50%AKR wins 50%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AKR 28–28 EMUAKR 25–53 EMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAKR 28–49 EMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAKR 32–46 EMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAKR 35–42 EMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAKR 39–39 EMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAKR 42–35 EMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAKR 46–32 EMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAKR 49–28 EMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAKR 53–25 EMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAKR 21–49 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAKR 25–46 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAKR 28–42 EMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAKR 32–39 EMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAKR 35–35 EMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAKR 39–32 EMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAKR 42–28 EMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAKR 46–25 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAKR 49–21 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAKR 18–46 EMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAKR 21–42 EMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAKR 25–39 EMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAKR 28–35 EMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAKR 32–32 EMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAKR 35–28 EMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAKR 39–25 EMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAKR 42–21 EMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAKR 46–18 EMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAKR 14–42 EMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAKR 18–39 EMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAKR 21–35 EMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAKR 25–32 EMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAKR 28–28 EMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesAKR 32–25 EMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAKR 35–21 EMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAKR 39–18 EMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAKR 42–14 EMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAKR 11–39 EMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAKR 14–35 EMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAKR 18–32 EMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAKR 21–28 EMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAKR 25–25 EMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAKR 28–21 EMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAKR 32–18 EMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAKR 35–14 EMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAKR 39–11 EMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAKR 7–35 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAKR 11–32 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAKR 14–28 EMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAKR 18–25 EMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAKR 21–21 EMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAKR 25–18 EMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAKR 28–14 EMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAKR 32–11 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAKR 35–7 EMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAKR 4–32 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAKR 7–28 EMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAKR 11–25 EMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAKR 14–21 EMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAKR 18–18 EMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAKR 21–14 EMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAKR 25–11 EMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAKR 28–7 EMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAKR 32–4 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalEMU +28EMU +14PKAKR +14AKR +28margin →