AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#107Away
Central Michigan
0-0 · AVR 37.6
24p
#101Home
Ohio
0-0 · AVR 39.2
30p
CMU 34%66% OHIO
Spread
OHIO -6.1
Total
54
Moneyline
CMU+198OHIO-198
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CMU advantageevenOHIO advantage →
CMU throw
CMU +5
CMU run
CMU +15
OHIO throw
CMU +31
OHIO run
CMU linebackers #141
OHIO +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OHIO throws
Dom Dorwart
vs
Jaion Jackson
X · OHIO
CB1 · CMU
48.0
76.0
CMU +28
off the edge· hunting Flores
John Iannuzzi
vs
Evan Herrmann
LT · CMU
EDGE · OHIO
61.4
60.3
dead even
when CMU throws
Langston Lewis
vs
DJ Morton
X · CMU
CB1 · OHIO
53.7
62.9
OHIO +9
when CMU runs
Brock Townsend
vs
Michael Molnar
RB · CMU
MLB · OHIO
57.2
56.6
dead even
when OHIO runs
Duncan Brune
vs
Jeremiah Alston
RB · OHIO
MLB · CMU
63.3
47.4
OHIO +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Central Michigan
DBJaion Jackson
76.0140/1427
DBKyle Krebs
68.1278/1427
DBKeyton Jones
64.4377/1427
DBTysen Campbell
63.1404/1427
RBBrock Townsend
57.2138/514
WRLangston Lewis
53.7198/777
Ohio
RBDuncan Brune
63.382/514
SDJ Morton
62.9408/1427
SDJ Walker
61.2453/1427
CBKendall Bannister
59.8489/1427
LBMichael Molnar
56.6361/878
RBVictor Rosa
56.0155/514

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Central Michigan
opponent
Ohio
away+5.9
Ball State#136
+14.5home
neutral-0.8
Eastern Michigan#112
+5.3home
home-0.9
Miami (OH)#91
-2.4away
home+4.1
Akron#115
+2.6away
home-3.7
Sacramento State#111
-5.1away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOHIO +6.195% interval: -17.8 to 3080% interval: -11.3 to 23.5-11+24CMU wins 34%OHIO wins 66%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OHIO 32–25 CMUOHIO 28–49 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 32–46 CMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOHIO 35–42 CMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOHIO 39–39 CMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 42–35 CMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOHIO 46–32 CMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOHIO 49–28 CMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOHIO 53–25 CMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOHIO 56–21 CMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOHIO 25–46 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 28–42 CMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOHIO 32–39 CMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOHIO 35–35 CMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOHIO 39–32 CMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOHIO 42–28 CMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOHIO 46–25 CMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOHIO 49–21 CMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOHIO 53–18 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 21–42 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOHIO 25–39 CMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOHIO 28–35 CMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOHIO 32–32 CMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOHIO 35–28 CMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOHIO 39–25 CMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOHIO 42–21 CMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 46–18 CMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOHIO 49–14 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 18–39 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOHIO 21–35 CMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOHIO 25–32 CMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOHIO 28–28 CMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOHIO 32–25 CMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOHIO 35–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOHIO 39–18 CMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOHIO 42–14 CMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOHIO 46–11 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 14–35 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOHIO 18–32 CMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOHIO 21–28 CMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOHIO 25–25 CMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOHIO 28–21 CMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOHIO 32–18 CMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOHIO 35–14 CMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 39–11 CMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOHIO 42–7 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 11–32 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 14–28 CMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOHIO 18–25 CMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 21–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOHIO 25–18 CMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOHIO 28–14 CMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOHIO 32–11 CMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOHIO 35–7 CMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOHIO 39–4 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 7–28 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 11–25 CMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOHIO 14–21 CMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOHIO 18–18 CMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOHIO 21–14 CMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOHIO 25–11 CMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOHIO 28–7 CMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOHIO 32–4 CMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOHIO 35–0 CMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalCMU +21CMU +7OHIO +7OHIO +21OHIO +35margin →