AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#128Away
Kent State
0-0 · AVR 27.2
19p
#84Home
Western Michigan
0-0 · AVR 45.6
34p
KENT 15%85% WMU
Spread
WMU -15.0
Total
53
Moneyline
KENT+551WMU-551
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KENT advantageevenWMU advantage →
KENT throw
KENT QB #55KENT protection #112
WMU +37
KENT run
WMU linebackers #114
WMU +35
WMU throw
WMU WR #137WMU protection #19
WMU +12
WMU run
WMU +43

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Lowry
Hunter Whitenack
vs
Darian Blachewicz
LT · WMU
EDGE · KENT
72.2
65.9
WMU +6
when KENT throws
Da'Realyst Clark
vs
Daeh McCullough
X · KENT
CB1 · WMU
44.9
78.2
WMU +33
when WMU runs
Jalen Buckley
vs
Hayden Dawahare
RB · WMU
MLB · KENT
62.8
53.9
WMU +9
over the middle
Terik Mulder
vs
Joshua Franklin
TE · KENT
FS · WMU
47.9
67.3
WMU +19
when KENT runs
Jakorion Caffey
vs
Domanick Moon
RB · KENT
MLB · WMU
53.3
56.5
WMU +3
when WMU throws
Aveion Chenault
vs
Davion Pritchard
X · WMU
CB1 · KENT
47.0
59.4
KENT +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kent State
QBDru DeShields
64.556/308
DBDavion Pritchard
59.4498/1427
LBHayden Dawahare
53.9407/878
RBJakorion Caffey
53.3196/514
SClinton Robinson
49.2795/1427
TETerik Mulder
47.9148/287
Western Michigan
SDaeh McCullough
78.2111/1427
CBJarvarius Sims
77.0126/1427
SJoey Pope
68.7269/1427
RBJalen Buckley
62.887/514
LBDomanick Moon
56.5363/878
QBBroc Lowry
53.1120/308

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kent State
opponent
Western Michigan
away-8.1
Bowling Green#114
+9.4home
away-9.0
Eastern Michigan#112
+8.5home
home-6.6
Miami (OH)#91
+5.9home
home-1.6
Akron#115
+5.9away

Projected margin

80% between -2 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWMU +15.095% interval: -8.9 to 38.980% interval: -2.4 to 32.4-2+32KENT wins 15%WMU wins 85%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WMU 35–21 KENTWMU 32–46 KENT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWMU 35–42 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 39–39 KENT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWMU 42–35 KENT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWMU 46–32 KENT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWMU 49–28 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWMU 53–25 KENT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWMU 56–21 KENT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWMU 60–18 KENT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWMU 28–42 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 32–39 KENT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWMU 35–35 KENT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWMU 39–32 KENT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWMU 42–28 KENT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWMU 46–25 KENT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWMU 49–21 KENT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWMU 53–18 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWMU 56–14 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWMU 25–39 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 28–35 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWMU 32–32 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWMU 35–28 KENT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWMU 39–25 KENT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWMU 42–21 KENT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWMU 46–18 KENT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWMU 49–14 KENT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWMU 53–11 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 21–35 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWMU 25–32 KENT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWMU 28–28 KENT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWMU 32–25 KENT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWMU 35–21 KENT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWMU 39–18 KENT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWMU 42–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWMU 46–11 KENT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWMU 49–7 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 18–32 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWMU 21–28 KENT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWMU 25–25 KENT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWMU 28–21 KENT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWMU 32–18 KENT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWMU 35–14 KENT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWMU 39–11 KENT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWMU 42–7 KENT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWMU 46–4 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 14–28 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 18–25 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWMU 21–21 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWMU 25–18 KENT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWMU 28–14 KENT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWMU 32–11 KENT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWMU 35–7 KENT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWMU 39–4 KENT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWMU 42–0 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 11–25 KENT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWMU 14–21 KENT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWMU 18–18 KENT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWMU 21–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWMU 25–11 KENT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWMU 28–7 KENT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWMU 32–4 KENT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWMU 35–0 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalKENT +14PKWMU +14WMU +28WMU +42margin →