AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#91Away
Miami (OH)
0-0 · AVR 43.0
37p
#138Home
Massachusetts
0-0 · AVR 11.0
16p
M-OH 93%7% MASS
Spread
M-OH -20.9
Total
52
Moneyline
M-OH-1259MASS+1259
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← M-OH advantageevenMASS advantage →
M-OH throw
M-OH +10
M-OH run
M-OH backs #143
M-OH +15
MASS throw
M-OH +72
MASS run
M-OH +74

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MASS runs
Justin Williams-Thomas
vs
Malcolm McCain
RB · MASS
MLB · M-OH
50.1
82.1
M-OH +32
when MASS throws
Elijah Pedro
vs
Ben Minich
X · MASS
CB1 · M-OH
36.2
88.7
M-OH +52
when M-OH throws
Leo Scheidler
vs
DD Snyder
X · M-OH
CB1 · MASS
55.3
61.2
MASS +6
over the middle
Max Dowling
vs
Jermaine Agee
TE · MASS
FS · M-OH
38.7
76.7
M-OH +38
off the edge· hunting Gotkowski
Evan Malcore
vs
Andrew Depaepe
LT · M-OH
EDGE · MASS
54.0
59.9
MASS +6
when M-OH runs
D'Shawntae Jones
vs
Timmy Hinspeter
RB · M-OH
MLB · MASS
48.3
56.4
MASS +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Miami (OH)
DBBen Minich
88.719/1427
DBAmariyun Knighten
84.451/1427
LBMalcolm McCain
82.142/878
DBJosh Ringer
81.378/1427
LBLuke Myers
76.492/878
TEChristian Ross
58.965/287
Massachusetts
SDD Snyder
61.2452/1427
CBIsaiah Reed
59.2503/1427
LBTimmy Hinspeter
56.4366/878
LBTyler Martin
53.5415/878
RBJustin Williams-Thomas
50.1283/514
QBWilliam Watson III
47.3192/308

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Miami (OH)
opponent
Massachusetts
home-2.8
UConn#72
-31.2away
home+6.1
Bowling Green#114
-22.3away
home+8.1
Buffalo#116
-20.3away
home+7.5
Akron#115
-15.9home

Projected margin

80% between -38 and -4
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKM-OH +20.995% interval: -44.8 to 380% interval: -38.3 to -3.5-38-3M-OH wins 93%MASS wins 7%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ M-OH 35–14 MASSMASS 11–60 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMASS 14–56 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMASS 18–53 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMASS 21–49 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMASS 25–46 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMASS 28–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMASS 32–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMASS 35–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMASS 39–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMASS 7–56 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMASS 11–53 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMASS 14–49 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMASS 18–46 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMASS 21–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMASS 25–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMASS 28–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMASS 32–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMASS 35–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMASS 4–53 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMASS 7–49 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMASS 11–46 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMASS 14–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMASS 18–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMASS 21–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMASS 25–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMASS 28–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMASS 32–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMASS 0–49 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMASS 4–46 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMASS 7–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMASS 11–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMASS 14–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMASS 18–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMASS 21–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMASS 25–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMASS 28–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MASS 0–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMASS 4–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMASS 7–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMASS 11–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMASS 14–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMASS 18–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMASS 21–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMASS 25–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MASS 0–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMASS 4–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMASS 7–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMASS 11–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMASS 14–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMASS 18–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMASS 21–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MASS 0–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMASS 4–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMASS 7–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMASS 11–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMASS 14–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMASS 18–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalM-OH +49M-OH +35M-OH +21M-OH +7MASS +7margin →