AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
Michigan MAC Trophy
#84Away
Western Michigan
0-0 · AVR 45.6
27p
#107Home
Central Michigan
0-0 · AVR 37.6
23p
WMU 61%39% CMU
Spread
WMU -4.3
Total
51
Moneyline
WMU-158CMU+158
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WMU advantageevenCMU advantage →
WMU throw
WMU WR #137WMU protection #19
CMU +20
WMU run
CMU linebackers #141
WMU +41
CMU throw
WMU +36
CMU run
WMU linebackers #114
WMU +5

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Lowry
Hunter Whitenack
vs
Nathan VanTimmeren
LT · WMU
EDGE · CMU
72.2
85.9
CMU +14
off the edge· hunting Flores
John Iannuzzi
vs
August Johanningsmeier
LT · CMU
EDGE · WMU
61.4
81.6
WMU +20
when CMU throws
Langston Lewis
vs
Daeh McCullough
X · CMU
CB1 · WMU
53.7
78.2
WMU +24
when WMU throws
Aveion Chenault
vs
Jaion Jackson
X · WMU
CB1 · CMU
47.0
76.0
CMU +29
when CMU runs
Brock Townsend
vs
Domanick Moon
RB · CMU
MLB · WMU
57.2
56.5
dead even
when WMU runs
Jalen Buckley
vs
Jeremiah Alston
RB · WMU
MLB · CMU
62.8
47.4
WMU +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Western Michigan
SDaeh McCullough
78.2111/1427
CBJarvarius Sims
77.0126/1427
SJoey Pope
68.7269/1427
RBJalen Buckley
62.887/514
LBDomanick Moon
56.5363/878
QBBroc Lowry
53.1120/308
Central Michigan
DBJaion Jackson
76.0140/1427
DBKyle Krebs
68.1278/1427
DBKeyton Jones
64.4377/1427
DBTysen Campbell
63.1404/1427
RBBrock Townsend
57.2138/514
WRLangston Lewis
53.7198/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Western Michigan
opponent
Central Michigan
home+8.5
Eastern Michigan#112
-0.8neutral
away+6.4
Buffalo#116
-0.4away
home+5.9
Miami (OH)#91
-0.9home
away+5.9
Akron#115
+4.1home

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWMU +4.395% interval: -28.2 to 19.680% interval: -21.7 to 13.1-22+13WMU wins 61%CMU wins 39%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WMU 28–21 CMUCMU 18–53 WMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 21–49 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCMU 25–46 WMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCMU 28–42 WMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCMU 32–39 WMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCMU 35–35 WMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCMU 39–32 WMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCMU 42–28 WMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCMU 46–25 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCMU 14–49 WMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 18–46 WMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 21–42 WMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCMU 25–39 WMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCMU 28–35 WMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCMU 32–32 WMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCMU 35–28 WMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCMU 39–25 WMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCMU 42–21 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCMU 11–46 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCMU 14–42 WMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCMU 18–39 WMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCMU 21–35 WMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCMU 25–32 WMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCMU 28–28 WMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCMU 32–25 WMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCMU 35–21 WMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCMU 39–18 WMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCMU 7–42 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCMU 11–39 WMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCMU 14–35 WMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCMU 18–32 WMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCMU 21–28 WMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCMU 25–25 WMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCMU 28–21 WMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCMU 32–18 WMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCMU 35–14 WMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 4–39 WMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 7–35 WMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 11–32 WMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCMU 14–28 WMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCMU 18–25 WMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCMU 21–21 WMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCMU 25–18 WMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCMU 28–14 WMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCMU 32–11 WMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCMU 0–35 WMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 4–32 WMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCMU 7–28 WMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCMU 11–25 WMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCMU 14–21 WMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCMU 18–18 WMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCMU 21–14 WMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCMU 25–11 WMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCMU 28–7 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CMU 0–28 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCMU 4–25 WMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCMU 7–21 WMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCMU 11–18 WMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCMU 14–14 WMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCMU 18–11 WMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCMU 21–7 WMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCMU 25–4 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes70635649423528totalWMU +35WMU +21WMU +7CMU +7CMU +21margin →