AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#112Away
Eastern Michigan
0-0 · AVR 35.0
26p
#101Home
Ohio
0-0 · AVR 39.2
31p
EMU 36%64% OHIO
Spread
OHIO -5.3
Total
57
Moneyline
EMU+179OHIO-179
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← EMU advantageevenOHIO advantage →
EMU throw
EMU +21
EMU run
even
OHIO throw
OHIO +6
OHIO run
OHIO +37

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when EMU throws
Harold Mack
vs
DJ Morton
X · EMU
CB1 · OHIO
61.6
62.9
dead even
when OHIO runs
Duncan Brune
vs
Barry Manning
RB · OHIO
MLB · EMU
63.3
57.4
OHIO +6
over the middle
Joshua Long
vs
Andrew Vera
TE · EMU
FS · OHIO
61.5
49.9
EMU +12
when OHIO throws
Dom Dorwart
vs
Bryce Llewellyn
X · OHIO
CB1 · EMU
48.0
61.5
EMU +13
off the edge· hunting Kim
Tyler McMillan
vs
Evan Herrmann
LT · EMU
EDGE · OHIO
48.5
60.3
OHIO +12
when EMU runs
Joey Mattord
vs
Michael Molnar
RB · EMU
MLB · OHIO
50.0
56.6
OHIO +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Eastern Michigan
WRHarold Mack
61.6104/777
TEJoshua Long
61.536/287
DBBryce Llewellyn
61.5443/1427
QBNoah Kim
60.466/308
LBBarry Manning
57.4341/878
WRBenson Prosper
51.2279/777
Ohio
RBDuncan Brune
63.382/514
SDJ Morton
62.9408/1427
SDJ Walker
61.2453/1427
CBKendall Bannister
59.8489/1427
LBMichael Molnar
56.6361/878
RBVictor Rosa
56.0155/514

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Eastern Michigan
opponent
Ohio
home+15.5
Sacramento State#111
-5.1away
neutral+0.8
Central Michigan#107
+6.1home
away-0.1
Akron#115
+2.6away
home-4.3
Toledo#73
-1.6home
home+9.0
Kent State#128
+6.8away

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOHIO +5.395% interval: -18.6 to 29.280% interval: -12.1 to 22.6-12+23EMU wins 36%OHIO wins 64%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OHIO 32–25 EMUOHIO 28–49 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 32–46 EMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOHIO 35–42 EMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOHIO 39–39 EMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOHIO 42–35 EMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOHIO 46–32 EMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 49–28 EMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOHIO 53–25 EMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOHIO 56–21 EMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOHIO 25–46 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOHIO 28–42 EMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOHIO 32–39 EMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOHIO 35–35 EMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOHIO 39–32 EMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOHIO 42–28 EMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOHIO 46–25 EMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOHIO 49–21 EMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOHIO 53–18 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 21–42 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOHIO 25–39 EMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOHIO 28–35 EMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOHIO 32–32 EMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOHIO 35–28 EMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOHIO 39–25 EMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOHIO 42–21 EMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOHIO 46–18 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOHIO 49–14 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 18–39 EMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOHIO 21–35 EMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOHIO 25–32 EMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOHIO 28–28 EMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOHIO 32–25 EMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOHIO 35–21 EMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOHIO 39–18 EMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 42–14 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOHIO 46–11 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 14–35 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOHIO 18–32 EMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOHIO 21–28 EMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOHIO 25–25 EMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOHIO 28–21 EMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOHIO 32–18 EMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOHIO 35–14 EMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOHIO 39–11 EMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOHIO 42–7 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 11–32 EMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 14–28 EMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOHIO 18–25 EMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 21–21 EMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOHIO 25–18 EMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOHIO 28–14 EMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOHIO 32–11 EMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOHIO 35–7 EMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOHIO 39–4 EMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOHIO 7–28 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 11–25 EMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOHIO 14–21 EMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOHIO 18–18 EMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOHIO 21–14 EMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOHIO 25–11 EMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOHIO 28–7 EMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOHIO 32–4 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOHIO 35–0 EMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalEMU +21EMU +7OHIO +7OHIO +21OHIO +35margin →