AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Wed Nov 4
#101Away
Ohio
0-0 · AVR 39.2
29p
#115Home
Akron
0-0 · AVR 34.5
26p
OHIO 57%43% AKR
Spread
OHIO -2.6
Total
54
Moneyline
OHIO-134AKR+134
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OHIO advantageevenAKR advantage →
OHIO throw
AKR +11
OHIO run
OHIO +45
AKR throw
AKR +4
AKR run
AKR +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when AKR runs
Jordan Gant
vs
Michael Molnar
RB · AKR
MLB · OHIO
62.7
56.6
AKR +6
when OHIO throws
Dom Dorwart
vs
Zach Hobson
X · OHIO
CB1 · AKR
48.0
69.2
AKR +21
when AKR throws
Marcel Williams
vs
DJ Morton
X · AKR
CB1 · OHIO
54.0
62.9
OHIO +9
when OHIO runs
Duncan Brune
vs
Cam Macon
RB · OHIO
MLB · AKR
63.3
43.9
OHIO +19
off the edge· hunting Poffenbarger
Colin Lyons
vs
Evan Herrmann
LT · AKR
EDGE · OHIO
38.0
60.3
OHIO +22
over the middle
Conner Cravaack
vs
Andrew Vera
TE · AKR
FS · OHIO
34.2
49.9
OHIO +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ohio
RBDuncan Brune
63.382/514
SDJ Morton
62.9408/1427
SDJ Walker
61.2453/1427
CBKendall Bannister
59.8489/1427
LBMichael Molnar
56.6361/878
RBVictor Rosa
56.0155/514
Akron
CBZach Hobson
69.2258/1427
DBCatrell White
66.7316/1427
RBJordan Gant
62.789/514
DBIesa Jarmon
59.3500/1427
WRMarcel Williams
54.0192/777
WRKyan Mason
53.5205/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ohio
opponent
Akron
home+6.1
Central Michigan#107
-4.1away
home+5.3
Eastern Michigan#112
+0.1home
away+6.8
Kent State#128
+1.6away
away-2.4
Miami (OH)#91
-7.5away

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOHIO +2.695% interval: -26.6 to 21.380% interval: -20 to 14.7-20+15OHIO wins 57%AKR wins 43%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AKR 28–28 OHIOAKR 25–53 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAKR 28–49 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAKR 32–46 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAKR 35–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAKR 39–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAKR 42–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAKR 46–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAKR 49–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAKR 53–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesAKR 21–49 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAKR 25–46 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAKR 28–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAKR 32–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAKR 35–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAKR 39–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAKR 42–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAKR 46–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAKR 49–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAKR 18–46 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAKR 21–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAKR 25–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAKR 28–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAKR 32–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAKR 35–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAKR 39–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAKR 42–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAKR 46–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAKR 14–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAKR 18–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAKR 21–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAKR 25–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAKR 28–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAKR 32–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAKR 35–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAKR 39–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAKR 42–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAKR 11–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAKR 14–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAKR 18–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAKR 21–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAKR 25–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAKR 28–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAKR 32–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAKR 35–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAKR 39–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAKR 7–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAKR 11–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAKR 14–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAKR 18–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAKR 21–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAKR 25–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAKR 28–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAKR 32–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAKR 35–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAKR 4–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAKR 7–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAKR 11–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAKR 14–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAKR 18–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAKR 21–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAKR 25–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAKR 28–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAKR 32–4 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalOHIO +28OHIO +14PKAKR +14AKR +28margin →