AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Wed Nov 4 · 5:00 AM
#136Away
Ball State
0-0 · AVR 22.6
31p
#138Home
Massachusetts
0-0 · AVR 11.0
22p
BALL 73%27% MASS
Spread
BALL -9.1
Total
52
Moneyline
BALL-273MASS+273
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BALL advantageevenMASS advantage →
BALL throw
even
BALL run
MASS +7
MASS throw
BALL +5
MASS run
BALL +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MASS runs
Justin Williams-Thomas
vs
Jared Badie
RB · MASS
MLB · BALL
50.1
60.1
BALL +10
when BALL throws
Jabari Smith Jr.
vs
DD Snyder
X · BALL
CB1 · MASS
47.0
61.2
MASS +14
when BALL runs
Johnny Thompson Jr.
vs
Timmy Hinspeter
RB · BALL
MLB · MASS
49.3
56.4
MASS +7
when MASS throws
Elijah Pedro
vs
Quentavius Scandrett
X · MASS
CB1 · BALL
36.2
55.4
BALL +19
off the edge· hunting Luster
Chris Hood
vs
Andrew Depaepe
LT · BALL
EDGE · MASS
12.8
59.9
MASS +47
over the middle
Max Dowling
vs
Derek Fields
TE · MASS
FS · BALL
38.7
33.1
MASS +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ball State
LBJared Badie
60.1282/878
DBQuentavius Scandrett
55.4609/1427
DBWillizhuan Yates
53.6666/1427
QBKeldric Luster
53.0122/308
RBJohnny Thompson Jr.
49.3310/514
WRJabari Smith Jr.
47.0410/777
Massachusetts
SDD Snyder
61.2452/1427
CBIsaiah Reed
59.2503/1427
LBTimmy Hinspeter
56.4366/878
LBTyler Martin
53.5415/878
RBJustin Williams-Thomas
50.1283/514
QBWilliam Watson III
47.3192/308

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ball State
opponent
Massachusetts
home-12.1
Sacramento State#111
-28.7away
home-13.6
Toledo#73
-30.1away
home-3.8
Buffalo#116
-20.3away
away-10.8
Bowling Green#114
-22.3away

Projected margin

80% between -27 and 8
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBALL +9.195% interval: -33 to 14.880% interval: -26.5 to 8.3-26+8BALL wins 73%MASS wins 27%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BALL 28–21 MASSMASS 18–53 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMASS 21–49 BALL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMASS 25–46 BALL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMASS 28–42 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMASS 32–39 BALL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMASS 35–35 BALL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMASS 39–32 BALL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMASS 42–28 BALL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMASS 46–25 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMASS 14–49 BALL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMASS 18–46 BALL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMASS 21–42 BALL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMASS 25–39 BALL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMASS 28–35 BALL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMASS 32–32 BALL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMASS 35–28 BALL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMASS 39–25 BALL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMASS 42–21 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMASS 11–46 BALL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMASS 14–42 BALL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMASS 18–39 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMASS 21–35 BALL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMASS 25–32 BALL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMASS 28–28 BALL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMASS 32–25 BALL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMASS 35–21 BALL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMASS 39–18 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMASS 7–42 BALL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMASS 11–39 BALL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMASS 14–35 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMASS 18–32 BALL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMASS 21–28 BALL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMASS 25–25 BALL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMASS 28–21 BALL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMASS 32–18 BALL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMASS 35–14 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMASS 4–39 BALL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMASS 7–35 BALL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMASS 11–32 BALL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMASS 14–28 BALL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMASS 18–25 BALL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMASS 21–21 BALL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMASS 25–18 BALL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMASS 28–14 BALL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMASS 32–11 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMASS 0–35 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMASS 4–32 BALL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMASS 7–28 BALL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMASS 11–25 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMASS 14–21 BALL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMASS 18–18 BALL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMASS 21–14 BALL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMASS 25–11 BALL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMASS 28–7 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MASS 0–28 BALL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMASS 4–25 BALL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMASS 7–21 BALL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMASS 11–18 BALL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMASS 14–14 BALL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMASS 18–11 BALL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMASS 21–7 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMASS 25–4 BALL neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalBALL +35BALL +21BALL +7MASS +7MASS +21margin →