AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Wed Nov 4 · 5:00 AM · neutral site
Michigan MAC Trophy
#107Away
Central Michigan
0-0 · AVR 37.6
27p
#112Home
Eastern Michigan
0-0 · AVR 35.0
28p
CMU 48%52% EMU
Spread
EMU -0.8
Total
55
Moneyline
CMU+110EMU-110
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CMU advantageevenEMU advantage →
CMU throw
CMU +16
CMU run
CMU +21
EMU throw
CMU +5
EMU run
CMU linebackers #141
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when EMU throws
Harold Mack
vs
Jaion Jackson
X · EMU
CB1 · CMU
61.6
76.0
CMU +14
off the edge· hunting Kim
Tyler McMillan
vs
Nathan VanTimmeren
LT · EMU
EDGE · CMU
48.5
85.9
CMU +37
off the edge· hunting Flores
John Iannuzzi
vs
Quincy Byas
LT · CMU
EDGE · EMU
61.4
64.9
EMU +4
over the middle
Joshua Long
vs
Tysen Campbell
TE · EMU
FS · CMU
61.5
63.1
dead even
when CMU throws
Langston Lewis
vs
Bryce Llewellyn
X · CMU
CB1 · EMU
53.7
61.5
EMU +8
when CMU runs
Brock Townsend
vs
Barry Manning
RB · CMU
MLB · EMU
57.2
57.4
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Central Michigan
DBJaion Jackson
76.0140/1427
DBKyle Krebs
68.1278/1427
DBKeyton Jones
64.4377/1427
DBTysen Campbell
63.1404/1427
RBBrock Townsend
57.2138/514
WRLangston Lewis
53.7198/777
Eastern Michigan
WRHarold Mack
61.6104/777
TEJoshua Long
61.536/287
DBBryce Llewellyn
61.5443/1427
QBNoah Kim
60.466/308
LBBarry Manning
57.4341/878
WRBenson Prosper
51.2279/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Central Michigan
opponent
Eastern Michigan
home-3.7
Sacramento State#111
+15.5home
home-4.3
Western Michigan#84
-8.5away
home+4.1
Akron#115
-0.1away
away-6.1
Ohio#101
-5.3away

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKEMU +0.895% interval: -23.1 to 24.780% interval: -16.6 to 18.2-17+18CMU wins 48%EMU wins 52%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ EMU 28–28 CMUEMU 25–53 CMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesEMU 28–49 CMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesEMU 32–46 CMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesEMU 35–42 CMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesEMU 39–39 CMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesEMU 42–35 CMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesEMU 46–32 CMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesEMU 49–28 CMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesEMU 53–25 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 21–49 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 25–46 CMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesEMU 28–42 CMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesEMU 32–39 CMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesEMU 35–35 CMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesEMU 39–32 CMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesEMU 42–28 CMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesEMU 46–25 CMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesEMU 49–21 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesEMU 18–46 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesEMU 21–42 CMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesEMU 25–39 CMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesEMU 28–35 CMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesEMU 32–32 CMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesEMU 35–28 CMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesEMU 39–25 CMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesEMU 42–21 CMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesEMU 46–18 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 14–42 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesEMU 18–39 CMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesEMU 21–35 CMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesEMU 25–32 CMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesEMU 28–28 CMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesEMU 32–25 CMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesEMU 35–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesEMU 39–18 CMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesEMU 42–14 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 11–39 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesEMU 14–35 CMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesEMU 18–32 CMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesEMU 21–28 CMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesEMU 25–25 CMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesEMU 28–21 CMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesEMU 32–18 CMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesEMU 35–14 CMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesEMU 39–11 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 7–35 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 11–32 CMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesEMU 14–28 CMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesEMU 18–25 CMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesEMU 21–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesEMU 25–18 CMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesEMU 28–14 CMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesEMU 32–11 CMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesEMU 35–7 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesEMU 4–32 CMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesEMU 7–28 CMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesEMU 11–25 CMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesEMU 14–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesEMU 18–18 CMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesEMU 21–14 CMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesEMU 25–11 CMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesEMU 28–7 CMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesEMU 32–4 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalCMU +28CMU +14PKEMU +14EMU +28margin →