AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Tue Nov 10 · 5:00 AM
#84Away
Western Michigan
0-0 · AVR 45.6
28p
#115Home
Akron
0-0 · AVR 34.5
22p
WMU 66%34% AKR
Spread
WMU -5.9
Total
51
Moneyline
WMU-193AKR+193
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WMU advantageevenAKR advantage →
WMU throw
WMU WR #137WMU protection #19
even
WMU run
WMU +56
AKR throw
WMU +37
AKR run
WMU linebackers #114
WMU +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Lowry
Hunter Whitenack
vs
Cyrus Durham
LT · WMU
EDGE · AKR
72.2
81.4
AKR +9
when AKR throws
Marcel Williams
vs
Daeh McCullough
X · AKR
CB1 · WMU
54.0
78.2
WMU +24
off the edge· hunting Poffenbarger
Colin Lyons
vs
August Johanningsmeier
LT · AKR
EDGE · WMU
38.0
81.6
WMU +44
when AKR runs
Jordan Gant
vs
Domanick Moon
RB · AKR
MLB · WMU
62.7
56.5
AKR +6
when WMU throws
Aveion Chenault
vs
Zach Hobson
X · WMU
CB1 · AKR
47.0
69.2
AKR +22
when WMU runs
Jalen Buckley
vs
Cam Macon
RB · WMU
MLB · AKR
62.8
43.9
WMU +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Western Michigan
SDaeh McCullough
78.2111/1427
CBJarvarius Sims
77.0126/1427
SJoey Pope
68.7269/1427
RBJalen Buckley
62.887/514
LBDomanick Moon
56.5363/878
QBBroc Lowry
53.1120/308
Akron
CBZach Hobson
69.2258/1427
DBCatrell White
66.7316/1427
RBJordan Gant
62.789/514
DBIesa Jarmon
59.3500/1427
WRMarcel Williams
54.0192/777
WRKyan Mason
53.5205/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Western Michigan
opponent
Akron
home+15.0
Kent State#128
+1.6away
home+5.9
Miami (OH)#91
-7.5away
home+8.5
Eastern Michigan#112
+0.1home
away+4.3
Central Michigan#107
-4.1away
away+6.4
Buffalo#116
+3.1home

Projected margin

80% between -23 and 12
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWMU +5.995% interval: -29.8 to 1880% interval: -23.3 to 11.5-23+12WMU wins 66%AKR wins 34%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WMU 28–21 AKRAKR 18–53 WMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAKR 21–49 WMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAKR 25–46 WMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAKR 28–42 WMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAKR 32–39 WMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAKR 35–35 WMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAKR 39–32 WMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAKR 42–28 WMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAKR 46–25 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAKR 14–49 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAKR 18–46 WMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAKR 21–42 WMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAKR 25–39 WMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAKR 28–35 WMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAKR 32–32 WMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAKR 35–28 WMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAKR 39–25 WMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAKR 42–21 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAKR 11–46 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAKR 14–42 WMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAKR 18–39 WMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAKR 21–35 WMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAKR 25–32 WMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAKR 28–28 WMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAKR 32–25 WMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAKR 35–21 WMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAKR 39–18 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAKR 7–42 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAKR 11–39 WMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAKR 14–35 WMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAKR 18–32 WMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAKR 21–28 WMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesAKR 25–25 WMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAKR 28–21 WMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAKR 32–18 WMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAKR 35–14 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAKR 4–39 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAKR 7–35 WMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAKR 11–32 WMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAKR 14–28 WMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAKR 18–25 WMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAKR 21–21 WMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAKR 25–18 WMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAKR 28–14 WMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAKR 32–11 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAKR 0–35 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAKR 4–32 WMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAKR 7–28 WMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAKR 11–25 WMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAKR 14–21 WMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAKR 18–18 WMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAKR 21–14 WMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAKR 25–11 WMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAKR 28–7 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)AKR 0–28 WMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAKR 4–25 WMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAKR 7–21 WMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAKR 11–18 WMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAKR 14–14 WMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAKR 18–11 WMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAKR 21–7 WMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAKR 25–4 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalWMU +35WMU +21WMU +7AKR +7AKR +21margin →