AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Tue Nov 10 · 5:00 AM
#101Away
Ohio
0-0 · AVR 39.2
26p
#91Home
Miami (OH)
0-0 · AVR 43.0
28p
OHIO 43%57% M-OH
Spread
M-OH -2.4
Total
54
Moneyline
OHIO+133M-OH-133
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OHIO advantageevenM-OH advantage →
OHIO throw
M-OH +55
OHIO run
M-OH +16
M-OH throw
OHIO +5
M-OH run
M-OH backs #143
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OHIO runs
Duncan Brune
vs
Malcolm McCain
RB · OHIO
MLB · M-OH
63.3
82.1
M-OH +19
when OHIO throws
Dom Dorwart
vs
Ben Minich
X · OHIO
CB1 · M-OH
48.0
88.7
M-OH +41
when M-OH throws
Leo Scheidler
vs
DJ Morton
X · M-OH
CB1 · OHIO
55.3
62.9
OHIO +8
off the edge· hunting Gotkowski
Evan Malcore
vs
Evan Herrmann
LT · M-OH
EDGE · OHIO
54.0
60.3
OHIO +6
over the middle
Christian Ross
vs
Andrew Vera
TE · M-OH
FS · OHIO
58.9
49.9
M-OH +9
when M-OH runs
D'Shawntae Jones
vs
Michael Molnar
RB · M-OH
MLB · OHIO
48.3
56.6
OHIO +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ohio
RBDuncan Brune
63.382/514
SDJ Morton
62.9408/1427
SDJ Walker
61.2453/1427
CBKendall Bannister
59.8489/1427
LBMichael Molnar
56.6361/878
RBVictor Rosa
56.0155/514
Miami (OH)
DBBen Minich
88.719/1427
DBAmariyun Knighten
84.451/1427
LBMalcolm McCain
82.142/878
DBJosh Ringer
81.378/1427
LBLuke Myers
76.492/878
TEChristian Ross
58.965/287

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ohio
opponent
Miami (OH)
home+6.1
Central Michigan#107
+0.9away
away+2.6
Akron#115
+7.5home
away+6.8
Kent State#128
+6.6away

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKM-OH +2.495% interval: -21.5 to 26.380% interval: -15 to 19.8-15+20OHIO wins 43%M-OH wins 57%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ M-OH 28–28 OHIOM-OH 25–53 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesM-OH 28–49 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 32–46 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesM-OH 35–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesM-OH 39–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesM-OH 42–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesM-OH 46–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesM-OH 49–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesM-OH 53–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesM-OH 21–49 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesM-OH 25–46 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesM-OH 28–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesM-OH 32–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesM-OH 35–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesM-OH 39–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesM-OH 42–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesM-OH 46–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesM-OH 49–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 18–46 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesM-OH 21–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesM-OH 25–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesM-OH 28–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesM-OH 32–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesM-OH 35–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesM-OH 39–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesM-OH 42–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesM-OH 46–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesM-OH 14–42 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesM-OH 18–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesM-OH 21–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesM-OH 25–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesM-OH 28–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesM-OH 32–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesM-OH 35–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesM-OH 39–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesM-OH 42–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesM-OH 11–39 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesM-OH 14–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesM-OH 18–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesM-OH 21–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesM-OH 25–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesM-OH 28–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesM-OH 32–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesM-OH 35–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesM-OH 39–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesM-OH 7–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesM-OH 11–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesM-OH 14–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesM-OH 18–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesM-OH 21–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesM-OH 25–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesM-OH 28–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesM-OH 32–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesM-OH 35–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 4–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesM-OH 7–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesM-OH 11–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesM-OH 14–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesM-OH 18–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesM-OH 21–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesM-OH 25–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesM-OH 28–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesM-OH 32–4 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalOHIO +28OHIO +14PKM-OH +14M-OH +28margin →