AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Tue Nov 17 · 5:00 AM
#136Away
Ball State
0-0 · AVR 22.6
20p
#101Home
Ohio
0-0 · AVR 39.2
34p
BALL 16%84% OHIO
Spread
OHIO -14.5
Total
54
Moneyline
BALL+526OHIO-526
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BALL advantageevenOHIO advantage →
BALL throw
OHIO +10
BALL run
OHIO +24
OHIO throw
OHIO +12
OHIO run
OHIO +44

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OHIO runs
Duncan Brune
vs
Jared Badie
RB · OHIO
MLB · BALL
63.3
60.1
OHIO +3
when BALL throws
Jabari Smith Jr.
vs
DJ Morton
X · BALL
CB1 · OHIO
47.0
62.9
OHIO +16
when BALL runs
Johnny Thompson Jr.
vs
Michael Molnar
RB · BALL
MLB · OHIO
49.3
56.6
OHIO +7
when OHIO throws
Dom Dorwart
vs
Quentavius Scandrett
X · OHIO
CB1 · BALL
48.0
55.4
BALL +7
off the edge· hunting Luster
Chris Hood
vs
Evan Herrmann
LT · BALL
EDGE · OHIO
12.8
60.3
OHIO +47

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ball State
LBJared Badie
60.1282/878
DBQuentavius Scandrett
55.4609/1427
DBWillizhuan Yates
53.6666/1427
QBKeldric Luster
53.0122/308
RBJohnny Thompson Jr.
49.3310/514
WRJabari Smith Jr.
47.0410/777
Ohio
RBDuncan Brune
63.382/514
SDJ Morton
62.9408/1427
SDJ Walker
61.2453/1427
CBKendall Bannister
59.8489/1427
LBMichael Molnar
56.6361/878
RBVictor Rosa
56.0155/514

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ball State
opponent
Ohio
away-5.2
Kent State#128
+6.8away
home-13.6
Toledo#73
-1.6home
home-5.9
Central Michigan#107
+6.1home
home-12.1
Sacramento State#111
-5.1away

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOHIO +14.595% interval: -9.4 to 38.480% interval: -2.9 to 31.8-3+32BALL wins 16%OHIO wins 84%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OHIO 35–21 BALLOHIO 32–46 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOHIO 35–42 BALL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOHIO 39–39 BALL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOHIO 42–35 BALL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOHIO 46–32 BALL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOHIO 49–28 BALL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 53–25 BALL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOHIO 56–21 BALL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOHIO 60–18 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOHIO 28–42 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 32–39 BALL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOHIO 35–35 BALL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOHIO 39–32 BALL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOHIO 42–28 BALL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOHIO 46–25 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOHIO 49–21 BALL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOHIO 53–18 BALL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOHIO 56–14 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 25–39 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 28–35 BALL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOHIO 32–32 BALL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 35–28 BALL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOHIO 39–25 BALL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOHIO 42–21 BALL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOHIO 46–18 BALL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOHIO 49–14 BALL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOHIO 53–11 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 21–35 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 25–32 BALL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOHIO 28–28 BALL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOHIO 32–25 BALL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOHIO 35–21 BALL neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOHIO 39–18 BALL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOHIO 42–14 BALL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOHIO 46–11 BALL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOHIO 49–7 BALL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOHIO 18–32 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 21–28 BALL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOHIO 25–25 BALL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOHIO 28–21 BALL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOHIO 32–18 BALL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOHIO 35–14 BALL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOHIO 39–11 BALL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOHIO 42–7 BALL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOHIO 46–4 BALL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOHIO 14–28 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOHIO 18–25 BALL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOHIO 21–21 BALL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOHIO 25–18 BALL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOHIO 28–14 BALL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOHIO 32–11 BALL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOHIO 35–7 BALL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOHIO 39–4 BALL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOHIO 42–0 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOHIO 11–25 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOHIO 14–21 BALL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOHIO 18–18 BALL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOHIO 21–14 BALL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOHIO 25–11 BALL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOHIO 28–7 BALL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOHIO 32–4 BALL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOHIO 35–0 BALL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalBALL +14PKOHIO +14OHIO +28OHIO +42margin →