AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Tue Nov 17 · 5:00 AM
Michigan MAC Trophy
#112Away
Eastern Michigan
0-0 · AVR 35.0
22p
#84Home
Western Michigan
0-0 · AVR 45.6
31p
EMU 28%72% WMU
Spread
WMU -8.5
Total
53
Moneyline
EMU+259WMU-259
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← EMU advantageevenWMU advantage →
EMU throw
WMU +20
EMU run
WMU linebackers #114
WMU +17
WMU throw
WMU WR #137WMU protection #19
WMU +17
WMU run
WMU +48

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when EMU throws
Harold Mack
vs
Daeh McCullough
X · EMU
CB1 · WMU
61.6
78.2
WMU +17
off the edge· hunting Lowry
Hunter Whitenack
vs
Quincy Byas
LT · WMU
EDGE · EMU
72.2
64.9
WMU +7
off the edge· hunting Kim
Tyler McMillan
vs
August Johanningsmeier
LT · EMU
EDGE · WMU
48.5
81.6
WMU +33
over the middle
Joshua Long
vs
Joshua Franklin
TE · EMU
FS · WMU
61.5
67.3
WMU +6
when WMU runs
Jalen Buckley
vs
Barry Manning
RB · WMU
MLB · EMU
62.8
57.4
WMU +5
when WMU throws
Aveion Chenault
vs
Bryce Llewellyn
X · WMU
CB1 · EMU
47.0
61.5
EMU +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Eastern Michigan
WRHarold Mack
61.6104/777
TEJoshua Long
61.536/287
DBBryce Llewellyn
61.5443/1427
QBNoah Kim
60.466/308
LBBarry Manning
57.4341/878
WRBenson Prosper
51.2279/777
Western Michigan
SDaeh McCullough
78.2111/1427
CBJarvarius Sims
77.0126/1427
SJoey Pope
68.7269/1427
RBJalen Buckley
62.887/514
LBDomanick Moon
56.5363/878
QBBroc Lowry
53.1120/308

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Eastern Michigan
opponent
Western Michigan
away-0.1
Akron#115
+5.9away
home+9.0
Kent State#128
+15.0home
neutral+0.8
Central Michigan#107
+4.3away
home-4.3
Toledo#73
-3.4away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWMU +8.595% interval: -15.4 to 32.480% interval: -8.9 to 25.9-9+26EMU wins 28%WMU wins 72%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WMU 32–25 EMUWMU 28–49 EMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWMU 32–46 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 35–42 EMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWMU 39–39 EMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWMU 42–35 EMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWMU 46–32 EMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWMU 49–28 EMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWMU 53–25 EMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWMU 56–21 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 25–46 EMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWMU 28–42 EMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWMU 32–39 EMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWMU 35–35 EMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWMU 39–32 EMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWMU 42–28 EMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWMU 46–25 EMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWMU 49–21 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWMU 53–18 EMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWMU 21–42 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 25–39 EMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWMU 28–35 EMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWMU 32–32 EMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWMU 35–28 EMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWMU 39–25 EMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWMU 42–21 EMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWMU 46–18 EMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWMU 49–14 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 18–39 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 21–35 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWMU 25–32 EMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWMU 28–28 EMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWMU 32–25 EMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWMU 35–21 EMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWMU 39–18 EMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWMU 42–14 EMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWMU 46–11 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 14–35 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 18–32 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWMU 21–28 EMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWMU 25–25 EMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWMU 28–21 EMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWMU 32–18 EMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWMU 35–14 EMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWMU 39–11 EMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWMU 42–7 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 11–32 EMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWMU 14–28 EMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWMU 18–25 EMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWMU 21–21 EMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWMU 25–18 EMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWMU 28–14 EMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWMU 32–11 EMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWMU 35–7 EMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWMU 39–4 EMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWMU 7–28 EMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWMU 11–25 EMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWMU 14–21 EMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWMU 18–18 EMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWMU 21–14 EMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWMU 25–11 EMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWMU 28–7 EMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWMU 32–4 EMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWMU 35–0 EMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalEMU +21EMU +7WMU +7WMU +21WMU +35margin →