AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Tue Nov 17 · 5:00 AM
#91Away
Miami (OH)
0-0 · AVR 43.0
31p
#128Home
Kent State
0-0 · AVR 27.2
24p
M-OH 68%32% KENT
Spread
M-OH -6.6
Total
55
Moneyline
M-OH-209KENT+209
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← M-OH advantageevenKENT advantage →
M-OH throw
even
M-OH run
M-OH backs #143
even
KENT throw
KENT QB #55KENT protection #112
M-OH +46
KENT run
M-OH +61

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when KENT runs
Jakorion Caffey
vs
Malcolm McCain
RB · KENT
MLB · M-OH
53.3
82.1
M-OH +29
when KENT throws
Da'Realyst Clark
vs
Ben Minich
X · KENT
CB1 · M-OH
44.9
88.7
M-OH +44
over the middle
Terik Mulder
vs
Jermaine Agee
TE · KENT
FS · M-OH
47.9
76.7
M-OH +29
off the edge· hunting Gotkowski
Evan Malcore
vs
Darian Blachewicz
LT · M-OH
EDGE · KENT
54.0
65.9
KENT +12
when M-OH throws
Leo Scheidler
vs
Davion Pritchard
X · M-OH
CB1 · KENT
55.3
59.4
KENT +4
when M-OH runs
D'Shawntae Jones
vs
Hayden Dawahare
RB · M-OH
MLB · KENT
48.3
53.9
KENT +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Miami (OH)
DBBen Minich
88.719/1427
DBAmariyun Knighten
84.451/1427
LBMalcolm McCain
82.142/878
DBJosh Ringer
81.378/1427
LBLuke Myers
76.492/878
TEChristian Ross
58.965/287
Kent State
QBDru DeShields
64.556/308
DBDavion Pritchard
59.4498/1427
LBHayden Dawahare
53.9407/878
RBJakorion Caffey
53.3196/514
SClinton Robinson
49.2795/1427
TETerik Mulder
47.9148/287

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Miami (OH)
opponent
Kent State
home+6.1
Bowling Green#114
-8.1away
home+2.4
Ohio#101
-6.8home
home+7.5
Akron#115
-1.6home
away-5.9
Western Michigan#84
-15.0away

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKM-OH +6.695% interval: -30.5 to 17.380% interval: -24 to 10.8-24+11M-OH wins 68%KENT wins 32%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ M-OH 32–25 KENTKENT 21–56 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENT 25–53 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKENT 28–49 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKENT 32–46 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENT 35–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENT 39–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENT 42–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKENT 46–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENT 49–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENT 18–53 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENT 21–49 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKENT 25–46 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKENT 28–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKENT 32–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKENT 35–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKENT 39–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKENT 42–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENT 46–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENT 14–49 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENT 18–46 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKENT 21–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENT 25–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKENT 28–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKENT 32–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKENT 35–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENT 39–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENT 42–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENT 11–46 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENT 14–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKENT 18–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENT 21–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKENT 25–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesKENT 28–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKENT 32–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKENT 35–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENT 39–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENT 7–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENT 11–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKENT 14–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENT 18–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKENT 21–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKENT 25–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKENT 28–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENT 32–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENT 35–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENT 4–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENT 7–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENT 11–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENT 14–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKENT 18–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKENT 21–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKENT 25–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENT 28–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKENT 32–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENT 0–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENT 4–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENT 7–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKENT 11–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENT 14–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKENT 18–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENT 21–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKENT 25–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKENT 28–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalM-OH +35M-OH +21M-OH +7KENT +7KENT +21margin →