AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Wed Nov 18 · 5:00 AM
#115Away
Akron
0-0 · AVR 34.5
34p
#138Home
Massachusetts
0-0 · AVR 11.0
18p
AKR 86%14% MASS
Spread
AKR -15.9
Total
52
Moneyline
AKR-608MASS+608
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← AKR advantageevenMASS advantage →
AKR throw
AKR +18
AKR run
AKR +27
MASS throw
AKR +28
MASS run
AKR +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when AKR runs
Jordan Gant
vs
Timmy Hinspeter
RB · AKR
MLB · MASS
62.7
56.4
AKR +6
when AKR throws
Marcel Williams
vs
DD Snyder
X · AKR
CB1 · MASS
54.0
61.2
MASS +7
when MASS throws
Elijah Pedro
vs
Zach Hobson
X · MASS
CB1 · AKR
36.2
69.2
AKR +33
off the edge· hunting Poffenbarger
Colin Lyons
vs
Andrew Depaepe
LT · AKR
EDGE · MASS
38.0
59.9
MASS +22
over the middle
Max Dowling
vs
Rodrick Hunter
TE · MASS
FS · AKR
38.7
55.4
AKR +17
when MASS runs
Justin Williams-Thomas
vs
Cam Macon
RB · MASS
MLB · AKR
50.1
43.9
MASS +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Akron
CBZach Hobson
69.2258/1427
DBCatrell White
66.7316/1427
RBJordan Gant
62.789/514
DBIesa Jarmon
59.3500/1427
WRMarcel Williams
54.0192/777
WRKyan Mason
53.5205/777
Massachusetts
SDD Snyder
61.2452/1427
CBIsaiah Reed
59.2503/1427
LBTimmy Hinspeter
56.4366/878
LBTyler Martin
53.5415/878
RBJustin Williams-Thomas
50.1283/514
QBWilliam Watson III
47.3192/308

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Akron
opponent
Massachusetts
home+3.1
Buffalo#116
-20.3away
home+0.1
Eastern Michigan#112
-18.3home
away-7.5
Miami (OH)#91
-20.9home

Projected margin

80% between -33 and 2
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAKR +15.995% interval: -39.8 to 880% interval: -33.3 to 1.5-33+2AKR wins 86%MASS wins 14%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AKR 32–18 MASSMASS 14–56 AKR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMASS 18–53 AKR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMASS 21–49 AKR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMASS 25–46 AKR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMASS 28–42 AKR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMASS 32–39 AKR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMASS 35–35 AKR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMASS 39–32 AKR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMASS 42–28 AKR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMASS 11–53 AKR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMASS 14–49 AKR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMASS 18–46 AKR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMASS 21–42 AKR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMASS 25–39 AKR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMASS 28–35 AKR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMASS 32–32 AKR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMASS 35–28 AKR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMASS 39–25 AKR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMASS 7–49 AKR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMASS 11–46 AKR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMASS 14–42 AKR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMASS 18–39 AKR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMASS 21–35 AKR neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMASS 25–32 AKR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMASS 28–28 AKR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMASS 32–25 AKR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMASS 35–21 AKR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMASS 4–46 AKR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMASS 7–42 AKR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMASS 11–39 AKR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMASS 14–35 AKR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMASS 18–32 AKR neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMASS 21–28 AKR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMASS 25–25 AKR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMASS 28–21 AKR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMASS 32–18 AKR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMASS 0–42 AKR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMASS 4–39 AKR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMASS 7–35 AKR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMASS 11–32 AKR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMASS 14–28 AKR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMASS 18–25 AKR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMASS 21–21 AKR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMASS 25–18 AKR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMASS 28–14 AKR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MASS 0–35 AKR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMASS 4–32 AKR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMASS 7–28 AKR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMASS 11–25 AKR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMASS 14–21 AKR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMASS 18–18 AKR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMASS 21–14 AKR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMASS 25–11 AKR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MASS 0–28 AKR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMASS 4–25 AKR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMASS 7–21 AKR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMASS 11–18 AKR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMASS 14–14 AKR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMASS 18–11 AKR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMASS 21–7 AKR neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalAKR +42AKR +28AKR +14PKMASS +14margin →