AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#91Away
Miami (OH)
0-0 · AVR 43.0
27p
#107Home
Central Michigan
0-0 · AVR 37.6
26p
M-OH 53%47% CMU
Spread
M-OH -0.9
Total
53
Moneyline
M-OH-113CMU+113
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← M-OH advantageevenCMU advantage →
M-OH throw
CMU +30
M-OH run
M-OH backs #143CMU linebackers #141
even
CMU throw
M-OH +45
CMU run
M-OH +31

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CMU throws
Langston Lewis
vs
Ben Minich
X · CMU
CB1 · M-OH
53.7
88.7
M-OH +35
off the edge· hunting Gotkowski
Evan Malcore
vs
Nathan VanTimmeren
LT · M-OH
EDGE · CMU
54.0
85.9
CMU +32
when CMU runs
Brock Townsend
vs
Malcolm McCain
RB · CMU
MLB · M-OH
57.2
82.1
M-OH +25
off the edge· hunting Flores
John Iannuzzi
vs
Bai Jobe
LT · CMU
EDGE · M-OH
61.4
71.1
M-OH +10
when M-OH throws
Leo Scheidler
vs
Jaion Jackson
X · M-OH
CB1 · CMU
55.3
76.0
CMU +21
over the middle
Christian Ross
vs
Tysen Campbell
TE · M-OH
FS · CMU
58.9
63.1
CMU +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Miami (OH)
DBBen Minich
88.719/1427
DBAmariyun Knighten
84.451/1427
LBMalcolm McCain
82.142/878
DBJosh Ringer
81.378/1427
LBLuke Myers
76.492/878
TEChristian Ross
58.965/287
Central Michigan
DBJaion Jackson
76.0140/1427
DBKyle Krebs
68.1278/1427
DBKeyton Jones
64.4377/1427
DBTysen Campbell
63.1404/1427
RBBrock Townsend
57.2138/514
WRLangston Lewis
53.7198/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Miami (OH)
opponent
Central Michigan
home+8.1
Buffalo#116
-0.4away
home+2.4
Ohio#101
-6.1away
home+7.5
Akron#115
+4.1home
away-5.9
Western Michigan#84
-4.3home

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKM-OH +0.995% interval: -24.9 to 2380% interval: -18.3 to 16.4-18+16M-OH wins 53%CMU wins 47%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CMU 28–28 M-OHCMU 25–53 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 28–49 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCMU 32–46 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCMU 35–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCMU 39–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCMU 42–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCMU 46–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCMU 49–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCMU 53–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCMU 21–49 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCMU 25–46 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCMU 28–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCMU 32–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCMU 35–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCMU 39–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCMU 42–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCMU 46–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 49–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCMU 18–46 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCMU 21–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCMU 25–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCMU 28–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCMU 32–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCMU 35–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCMU 39–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCMU 42–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCMU 46–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCMU 14–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCMU 18–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCMU 21–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCMU 25–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCMU 28–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCMU 32–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCMU 35–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCMU 39–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCMU 42–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCMU 11–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCMU 14–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCMU 18–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCMU 21–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCMU 25–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCMU 28–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCMU 32–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCMU 35–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCMU 39–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCMU 7–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCMU 11–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCMU 14–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCMU 18–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCMU 21–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCMU 25–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCMU 28–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCMU 32–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCMU 35–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCMU 4–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCMU 7–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCMU 11–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCMU 14–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCMU 18–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCMU 21–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCMU 25–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCMU 28–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCMU 32–4 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalM-OH +28M-OH +14PKCMU +14CMU +28margin →