AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#115Away
Akron
0-0 · AVR 34.5
23p
#91Home
Miami (OH)
0-0 · AVR 43.0
30p
AKR 30%70% M-OH
Spread
M-OH -7.5
Total
53
Moneyline
AKR+230M-OH-230
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← AKR advantageevenM-OH advantage →
AKR throw
M-OH +46
AKR run
M-OH +37
M-OH throw
AKR +10
M-OH run
M-OH backs #143
M-OH +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when AKR runs
Jordan Gant
vs
Malcolm McCain
RB · AKR
MLB · M-OH
62.7
82.1
M-OH +19
when AKR throws
Marcel Williams
vs
Ben Minich
X · AKR
CB1 · M-OH
54.0
88.7
M-OH +35
off the edge· hunting Gotkowski
Evan Malcore
vs
Cyrus Durham
LT · M-OH
EDGE · AKR
54.0
81.4
AKR +27
when M-OH throws
Leo Scheidler
vs
Zach Hobson
X · M-OH
CB1 · AKR
55.3
69.2
AKR +14
over the middle
Christian Ross
vs
Rodrick Hunter
TE · M-OH
FS · AKR
58.9
55.4
M-OH +4
over the middle
Conner Cravaack
vs
Jermaine Agee
TE · AKR
FS · M-OH
34.2
76.7
M-OH +42

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Akron
CBZach Hobson
69.2258/1427
DBCatrell White
66.7316/1427
RBJordan Gant
62.789/514
DBIesa Jarmon
59.3500/1427
WRMarcel Williams
54.0192/777
WRKyan Mason
53.5205/777
Miami (OH)
DBBen Minich
88.719/1427
DBAmariyun Knighten
84.451/1427
LBMalcolm McCain
82.142/878
DBJosh Ringer
81.378/1427
LBLuke Myers
76.492/878
TEChristian Ross
58.965/287

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Akron
opponent
Miami (OH)
away-4.1
Central Michigan#107
+0.9away
away+1.6
Kent State#128
+6.6away
home-2.6
Ohio#101
+2.4home
home+3.1
Buffalo#116
+8.1home
away+15.9
Massachusetts#138
+20.9away
home-5.9
Western Michigan#84
-5.9away

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKM-OH +7.595% interval: -16.4 to 31.480% interval: -9.9 to 24.9-10+25AKR wins 30%M-OH wins 70%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ M-OH 32–25 AKRM-OH 28–49 AKR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesM-OH 32–46 AKR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 35–42 AKR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesM-OH 39–39 AKR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesM-OH 42–35 AKR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesM-OH 46–32 AKR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesM-OH 49–28 AKR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesM-OH 53–25 AKR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesM-OH 56–21 AKR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesM-OH 25–46 AKR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesM-OH 28–42 AKR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesM-OH 32–39 AKR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesM-OH 35–35 AKR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesM-OH 39–32 AKR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesM-OH 42–28 AKR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesM-OH 46–25 AKR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesM-OH 49–21 AKR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesM-OH 53–18 AKR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesM-OH 21–42 AKR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesM-OH 25–39 AKR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesM-OH 28–35 AKR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesM-OH 32–32 AKR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesM-OH 35–28 AKR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesM-OH 39–25 AKR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesM-OH 42–21 AKR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesM-OH 46–18 AKR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesM-OH 49–14 AKR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesM-OH 18–39 AKR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesM-OH 21–35 AKR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesM-OH 25–32 AKR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesM-OH 28–28 AKR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesM-OH 32–25 AKR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesM-OH 35–21 AKR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesM-OH 39–18 AKR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesM-OH 42–14 AKR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesM-OH 46–11 AKR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 14–35 AKR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesM-OH 18–32 AKR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesM-OH 21–28 AKR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesM-OH 25–25 AKR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesM-OH 28–21 AKR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesM-OH 32–18 AKR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesM-OH 35–14 AKR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesM-OH 39–11 AKR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesM-OH 42–7 AKR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 11–32 AKR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesM-OH 14–28 AKR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesM-OH 18–25 AKR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesM-OH 21–21 AKR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesM-OH 25–18 AKR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesM-OH 28–14 AKR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesM-OH 32–11 AKR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesM-OH 35–7 AKR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesM-OH 39–4 AKR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesM-OH 7–28 AKR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesM-OH 11–25 AKR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesM-OH 14–21 AKR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesM-OH 18–18 AKR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesM-OH 21–14 AKR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesM-OH 25–11 AKR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesM-OH 28–7 AKR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesM-OH 32–4 AKR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesM-OH 35–0 AKR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalAKR +21AKR +7M-OH +7M-OH +21M-OH +35margin →