CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 5:00 PM ET
#229Away
Alcorn State
0-0 · AVR 35.5
3
Final
#132Home
Southern Miss
0-0 · AVR 48.3
49
Forecast win probability
ALCN 2.0%98.0% USM
Projected margin
USM by 32.7
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
USM 12 to USM 53
Win probability
USM 98.0%
FinalALCN 3 · USM 49model had +32.7, off by 13.3

Current team profiles

Alcorn State
Southern Miss

When Alcorn State has the ball

Passing

No comparison
ALCN offense
—
USM defense
#103
EPA comparison
—
0.27
#103
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
ALCN offense
—
USM defense
#134
EPA comparison
—
0.26
#134
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
ALCN offense
#25
USM defense
#110
Success rates
46%
#25
45%
#110
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#18
0.20
#122
EPA / play
0.24
#12
1.24
#78
Explosiveness
—
12%
#129
Havoc

When Southern Miss has the ball

Passing

No comparison
ALCN defense
—
USM offense
#111
EPA comparison
—
0.08
#111
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
ALCN defense
—
USM offense
#30
EPA comparison
—
0.20
#30
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
ALCN defense
#80
USM offense
#62
Success rates
45%
#80
44%
#62
Success rate
More metrics
0.22
#113
0.08
#95
EPA / play
0.25
#125
1.19
#94
Explosiveness
—
15%
#73
Havoc

Current key players

Alcorn State
DBTyreke Snow
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.5
Coverage
88.6
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
34
Passer rating allowed
135.4
Missed tackles
0
86.57/1765
LBMahamadou Diarra
30 tkl · 6.5 TFL · 2.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.7
Coverage
72.8
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
34
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
1
86.19/1054
DLKenyen McKanstry
5 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.2
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
72.7186/1549
OLCheikh Sall
Player detail
Run blocking
72.1
Penalties
0
71.4100/1368
DBBrent Barnes
22 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.7
Coverage
73.6
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
43
Passer rating allowed
60.7
Missed tackles
3
71.4313/1765
LBKaidon Whidby
8 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.1
Coverage
57.2
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
8
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
70.5238/1054
Southern Miss
QBEthan Hampton
419 yds · 2 TD · 4 INT
69.3163/729
LBMelvin Spriggs
10 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
89.4
Coverage
62.7
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
86.231/1796
WRMJ Johnson
9 rec · 120 yds · 0 TD
83.631/2069
DBKobi Albert
13 tkl · 1 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
Run defense
74.7
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
52
Passer rating allowed
16.7
Missed tackles
0
83.334/2969
DBJonah Martinez
3 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.5
Coverage
89.8
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
25
Passer rating allowed
13.5
Missed tackles
2
83.136/2969
DBLaquan Robinson
20 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
77.5
Coverage
79.6
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
2
80.160/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Ethan Hampton · QBout · 2026-09-25

    Hampton is nursing with a hand injury, and a timetable for return has yet to be established.

  • Grant Page · WRout · 2026-09-22

    Page is sidelined due to a dislocated elbow, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Jaylen Himes · WRout · 2026-09-25

    Himes is out of commission due to a foot injury, and he will miss an extended period.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ALCN
USM
vs
Offense
63.6
#95 of 125
QB
69.3
#103 of 138
69.6
#80 of 126
RB
71.1
#110 of 138
66.8
#87 of 126
WR
74.2
#40 of 138
52.5
#122 of 124
TE
70.8
#58 of 138
66.5
#43 of 125
OL
72.9
#28 of 138
Defense
69.0
#81 of 126
DL
70.4
#100 of 138
74.9
#30 of 126
LB
75.7
#55 of 138
70.7
#75 of 126
DB
76.2
#23 of 138
Common opponents