CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 8:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
LAM 7.1%92.9% UL
Projected margin
UL by 23.5
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
UL 3 to UL 44
Win probability
UL 92.9%
FinalLAM 7 · UL 38model had +23.5, off by 7.5

Current team profiles

Lamar
Louisiana

When Lamar has the ball

Passing

No comparison
LAM offense
—
UL defense
#93
EPA comparison
—
0.22
#93
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
LAM offense
—
UL defense
#7
EPA comparison
—
-0.20
#7
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
LAM offense
#41
UL defense
#94
Success rates
45%
#41
42%
#94
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#18
-0.04
#27
EPA / play
0.22
#41
1.10
#20
Explosiveness
—
18%
#39
Havoc

When Louisiana has the ball

Passing

No comparison
LAM defense
—
UL offense
#62
EPA comparison
—
0.25
#62
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
LAM defense
—
UL offense
#45
EPA comparison
—
0.16
#45
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
LAM defense
#16
UL offense
#68
Success rates
40%
#16
44%
#68
Success rate
More metrics
-0.04
#3
0.15
#70
EPA / play
0.18
#18
1.19
#95
Explosiveness
—
14%
#52
Havoc

Current key players

Lamar
TEDavin Driskell
15 rec · 218 yds · 4 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
68.7
Run blocking
53.9
Penalties
1
82.65/526
DBBryce McDonald
24 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
81.1
Coverage
79.8
Targets allowed
12
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
67
Passer rating allowed
53.1
Missed tackles
0
81.632/1765
DBMar Mar Evans
28 tkl · 4 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.0
Coverage
80.6
Targets allowed
8
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
1
Passer rating allowed
45.8
Missed tackles
2
80.144/1765
OLJohn Hester
Player detail
Pass blocking
79.0
Run blocking
75.6
Penalties
0
76.428/1368
OLBrandon Stuckey
Player detail
Pass blocking
86.9
Run blocking
73.5
Penalties
2
76.429/1368
DLIyiolaOluwa Solomi
12 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.7
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
96
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
75.9101/1549
Louisiana
QBLunch Winfield
849 yds · 2 TD · 2 INT
89.726/729
CBBrent Gordon Jr.
30 tkl · 5 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.8
Coverage
90.0
Targets allowed
29
Rec allowed
16
Yards allowed
157
Passer rating allowed
64.9
Missed tackles
6
90.010/2969
CBCam Riley
0 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
79.1
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
79.570/2969
SLake Bates
8 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.6
Coverage
77.6
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
77.2117/2969
LBLester Jones
2 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
53.4
Coverage
48.2
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
75.5169/1796
RBAnthony Reagan Jr.
160 yds · 2 TD · 4.1 YPC
75.2175/1044
Availability reports · 3
  • Darrell Smith · RBout · 2026-10-07

    Smith is fighting off an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Ja'Corian Norris · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Norris is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will suit up against Trojans on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jerry Birdlow · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Birdlow is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Trojans on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

LAM
UL
vs
Offense
72.1
#62 of 125
QB
89.7
#25 of 138
69.2
#82 of 126
RB
73.6
#90 of 138
65.4
#100 of 126
WR
69.0
#93 of 138
82.6
#4 of 124
TE
71.5
#54 of 138
72.3
#13 of 125
OL
61.4
#124 of 138
Defense
72.8
#41 of 126
DL
66.1
#133 of 138
72.7
#50 of 126
LB
70.2
#104 of 138
76.1
#12 of 126
DB
78.5
#7 of 138
Common opponents