AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#118Away
Army
0-0 · AVR 32.8
22p
#94Home
Louisiana Tech
0-0 · AVR 42.0
30p
ARMY 29%71% LT
Spread
LT -8.0
Total
51
Moneyline
ARMY+240LT-240
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARMY advantageevenLT advantage →
ARMY throw
ARMY protection #8
LT +9
ARMY run
ARMY line #8ARMY backs #113
even
LT throw
LT +20
LT run
LT +44

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hellums
Kyle Kloska
vs
Judd Rouyea
LT · ARMY
EDGE · LT
85.4
83.2
dead even
when ARMY throws
Brady Anderson
vs
Jaitlin Hampton
X · ARMY
CB1 · LT
60.0
83.7
LT +24
over the middle
Parker Poloskey
vs
Sam Fongang
TE · ARMY
FS · LT
54.8
68.5
LT +14
when ARMY runs
Carson Smith
vs
Jadon Mayfield
RB · ARMY
MLB · LT
51.4
68.2
LT +17
off the edge· hunting Kukuk
Troy Smith III
vs
Jack Bousum
LT · LT
EDGE · ARMY
53.7
58.5
ARMY +5
when LT throws
Jalen Mickens
vs
Stephen Nnadozie
X · LT
CB1 · ARMY
44.3
59.7
ARMY +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Army
QBCale Hellums
64.257/308
WRBrady Anderson
60.0114/777
SStephen Nnadozie
59.7495/1427
TEParker Poloskey
54.892/287
CBJaydan Mayes
52.8682/1427
RBCarson Smith
51.4255/514
Louisiana Tech
DBJaitlin Hampton
83.760/1427
DBKam Franklin
75.3152/1427
DBJavari Lockhart
69.1261/1427
DBSam Fongang
68.5274/1427
LBJadon Mayfield
68.2175/878
LBAlonzo Jackson Jr.
61.2265/878

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLT +8.095% interval: -15.9 to 31.980% interval: -9.3 to 25.4-9+25ARMY wins 29%LT wins 71%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LT 28–21 ARMYLT 25–46 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLT 28–42 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLT 32–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLT 35–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLT 39–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLT 42–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLT 46–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLT 49–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLT 53–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 21–42 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 25–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLT 28–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLT 32–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLT 35–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLT 39–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLT 42–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLT 46–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLT 49–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLT 18–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLT 21–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLT 25–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLT 28–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLT 32–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLT 35–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLT 39–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLT 42–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLT 46–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLT 14–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLT 18–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLT 21–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLT 25–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLT 28–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesLT 32–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLT 35–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLT 39–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLT 42–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLT 11–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 14–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLT 18–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLT 21–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLT 25–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLT 28–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLT 32–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLT 35–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLT 39–4 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLT 7–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 11–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLT 14–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLT 18–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLT 21–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLT 25–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLT 28–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLT 32–4 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLT 35–0 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLT 4–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLT 7–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLT 11–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLT 14–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLT 18–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLT 21–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLT 25–4 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLT 28–0 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalARMY +21ARMY +7LT +7LT +21LT +35margin →