AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 PM
#126Away
Coastal Carolina
0-0 · AVR 29.6
23p
#102Home
Delaware
0-0 · AVR 39.0
31p
CCU 29%71% DEL
Spread
DEL -8.1
Total
55
Moneyline
CCU+246DEL-246
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CCU advantageevenDEL advantage →
CCU throw
CCU WR #42
CCU +12
CCU run
DEL +20
DEL throw
DEL QB #6DEL protection #64
DEL +26
DEL run
CCU front #36CCU linebackers #129
DEL +11

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CCU throws
Tristian Gardner
vs
KT Seay
X · CCU
CB1 · DEL
74.7
64.1
CCU +11
off the edge· hunting Minicucci
Steven Demboski
vs
Mitchell Toney
LT · DEL
EDGE · CCU
50.6
82.2
CCU +32
when CCU runs
Dominic Knicely
vs
Gavin Moul
RB · CCU
MLB · DEL
52.0
80.0
DEL +28
when DEL runs
Jo Silver
vs
Tray Brown
RB · DEL
MLB · CCU
66.9
63.6
DEL +3
when DEL throws
Sean Wilson
vs
Myles Woods
X · DEL
CB1 · CCU
68.2
54.5
DEL +14
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Daughtry Richardson
vs
Trace Scott III
LT · CCU
EDGE · DEL
47.2
72.8
DEL +26

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Coastal Carolina
WRTristian Gardner
74.734/777
LBTray Brown
63.6230/878
DBMyles Woods
54.5635/1427
WRClayton Coppock Jr.
53.9195/777
QBTrever Jackson
52.9125/308
RBDominic Knicely
52.0233/514
Delaware
QBNick Minicucci
88.66/308
LBGavin Moul
80.055/878
LBBlake Matthews
68.7165/878
WRSean Wilson
68.264/777
RBJo Silver
66.969/514
SKT Seay
64.1383/1427

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKDEL +8.195% interval: -15.8 to 3280% interval: -9.3 to 25.4-9+25CCU wins 29%DEL wins 71%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ DEL 32–25 CCUDEL 28–49 CCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDEL 32–46 CCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDEL 35–42 CCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDEL 39–39 CCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDEL 42–35 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDEL 46–32 CCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDEL 49–28 CCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesDEL 53–25 CCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDEL 56–21 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 25–46 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 28–42 CCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDEL 32–39 CCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDEL 35–35 CCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDEL 39–32 CCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDEL 42–28 CCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesDEL 46–25 CCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDEL 49–21 CCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDEL 53–18 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDEL 21–42 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 25–39 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDEL 28–35 CCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDEL 32–32 CCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDEL 35–28 CCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDEL 39–25 CCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesDEL 42–21 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDEL 46–18 CCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDEL 49–14 CCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 18–39 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDEL 21–35 CCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDEL 25–32 CCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDEL 28–28 CCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesDEL 32–25 CCU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesDEL 35–21 CCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDEL 39–18 CCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDEL 42–14 CCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesDEL 46–11 CCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 14–35 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 18–32 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDEL 21–28 CCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDEL 25–25 CCU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDEL 28–21 CCU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesDEL 32–18 CCU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesDEL 35–14 CCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDEL 39–11 CCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesDEL 42–7 CCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 11–32 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 14–28 CCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDEL 18–25 CCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDEL 21–21 CCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesDEL 25–18 CCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesDEL 28–14 CCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDEL 32–11 CCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDEL 35–7 CCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDEL 39–4 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDEL 7–28 CCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDEL 11–25 CCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDEL 14–21 CCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesDEL 18–18 CCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDEL 21–14 CCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDEL 25–11 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDEL 28–7 CCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDEL 32–4 CCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDEL 35–0 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalCCU +21CCU +7DEL +7DEL +21DEL +35margin →