AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#117Away
Georgia Southern
0-0 · AVR 33.9
30p
#126Home
Coastal Carolina
0-0 · AVR 29.6
27p
GASO 55%45% CCU
Spread
GASO -2.3
Total
57
Moneyline
GASO-125CCU+125
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← GASO advantageevenCCU advantage →
GASO throw
CCU coverage #123CCU pass rush #36
CCU +13
GASO run
CCU front #36CCU linebackers #129
CCU +8
CCU throw
CCU WR #42
CCU +44
CCU run
GASO front #157GASO linebackers #66
CCU +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bryan
Caelan Williams
vs
Mitchell Toney
LT · GASO
EDGE · CCU
78.6
82.2
CCU +4
when CCU runs
Dominic Knicely
vs
Anthony Bynum
RB · CCU
MLB · GASO
52.0
78.1
GASO +26
when CCU throws
Tristian Gardner
vs
Tracy Hill Jr.
X · CCU
CB1 · GASO
74.7
50.9
CCU +24
when GASO runs
David Mbadinga
vs
Tray Brown
RB · GASO
MLB · CCU
50.8
63.6
CCU +13
when GASO throws
Ashton Hollins
vs
Myles Woods
X · GASO
CB1 · CCU
49.2
54.5
CCU +5
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Daughtry Richardson
vs
Caleb Moore
LT · CCU
EDGE · GASO
47.2
49.3
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia Southern
LBAnthony Bynum
78.180/878
LBMJ Stroud
62.8244/878
QBWeston Bryan
51.6140/308
DBTracy Hill Jr.
50.9747/1427
RBDavid Mbadinga
50.8272/514
TEJP Mikhael
50.3129/287
Coastal Carolina
WRTristian Gardner
74.734/777
LBTray Brown
63.6230/878
DBMyles Woods
54.5635/1427
WRClayton Coppock Jr.
53.9195/777
QBTrever Jackson
52.9125/308
RBDominic Knicely
52.0233/514

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Georgia Southern
opponent
Coastal Carolina
home-9.9
James Madison#55
-19.8away
home-4.3
Marshall#83
-14.1away
home+0.6
App State#103
-4.2home
away+1.8
Georgia State#131
-3.0away
away-10.0
Old Dominion#76
-9.8home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKGASO +2.395% interval: -26.2 to 21.680% interval: -19.7 to 15.1-20+15GASO wins 55%CCU wins 45%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CCU 28–28 GASOCCU 25–53 GASO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCCU 28–49 GASO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCCU 32–46 GASO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCCU 35–42 GASO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCCU 39–39 GASO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCCU 42–35 GASO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCCU 46–32 GASO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCCU 49–28 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCCU 53–25 GASO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCCU 21–49 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCCU 25–46 GASO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCCU 28–42 GASO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCCU 32–39 GASO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCCU 35–35 GASO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCCU 39–32 GASO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCCU 42–28 GASO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCCU 46–25 GASO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCCU 49–21 GASO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCCU 18–46 GASO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 21–42 GASO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCCU 25–39 GASO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCCU 28–35 GASO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCCU 32–32 GASO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCCU 35–28 GASO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCCU 39–25 GASO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCCU 42–21 GASO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCCU 46–18 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCCU 14–42 GASO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 18–39 GASO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCCU 21–35 GASO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCCU 25–32 GASO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCCU 28–28 GASO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCCU 32–25 GASO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCCU 35–21 GASO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCCU 39–18 GASO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCCU 42–14 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCCU 11–39 GASO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 14–35 GASO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCCU 18–32 GASO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCCU 21–28 GASO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCCU 25–25 GASO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCCU 28–21 GASO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCCU 32–18 GASO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCCU 35–14 GASO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCCU 39–11 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCCU 7–35 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCCU 11–32 GASO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCCU 14–28 GASO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCCU 18–25 GASO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCCU 21–21 GASO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCCU 25–18 GASO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCCU 28–14 GASO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCCU 32–11 GASO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCCU 35–7 GASO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCCU 4–32 GASO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCCU 7–28 GASO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCCU 11–25 GASO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCCU 14–21 GASO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCCU 18–18 GASO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCCU 21–14 GASO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCCU 25–11 GASO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCCU 28–7 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCCU 32–4 GASO neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalGASO +28GASO +14PKCCU +14CCU +28margin →