AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#126Away
Coastal Carolina
0-0 · AVR 29.6
22p
#83Home
Marshall
0-0 · AVR 45.8
36p
CCU 17%83% MRSH
Spread
MRSH -14.1
Total
57
Moneyline
CCU+490MRSH-490
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CCU advantageevenMRSH advantage →
CCU throw
CCU WR #42
CCU +5
CCU run
even
MRSH throw
MRSH protection #97CCU coverage #123
MRSH +15
MRSH run
CCU front #36CCU linebackers #129
CCU +26

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CCU throws
Tristian Gardner
vs
Boogie Trotter
X · CCU
CB1 · MRSH
74.7
79.3
MRSH +5
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Daughtry Richardson
vs
Braydin Ward
LT · CCU
EDGE · MRSH
47.2
89.6
MRSH +42
when CCU runs
Dominic Knicely
vs
Javae Gilmore
RB · CCU
MLB · MRSH
52.0
81.8
MRSH +30
when MRSH throws
De'Andre Tamarez
vs
Myles Woods
X · MRSH
CB1 · CCU
67.4
54.5
MRSH +13
when MRSH runs
Jo'Shon Barbie
vs
Tray Brown
RB · MRSH
MLB · CCU
51.6
63.6
CCU +12
off the edge· hunting Rio-Wilson
Tariq Montgomery
vs
Mitchell Toney
LT · MRSH
EDGE · CCU
32.0
82.2
CCU +50

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Coastal Carolina
WRTristian Gardner
74.734/777
LBTray Brown
63.6230/878
DBMyles Woods
54.5635/1427
WRClayton Coppock Jr.
53.9195/777
QBTrever Jackson
52.9125/308
RBDominic Knicely
52.0233/514
Marshall
LBJavae Gilmore
81.843/878
CBBoogie Trotter
79.397/1427
QBCarlos Del Rio-Wilson
76.328/308
DBCharles McCartherens
69.6250/1427
WRDe'Andre Tamarez
67.468/777
CBEddie Pleasant III
67.4293/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Coastal Carolina
opponent
Marshall
away-3.0
Georgia State#131
+13.6home
away-19.8
James Madison#55
-8.2away
home-4.2
App State#103
+7.3home
home-9.8
Old Dominion#76
-3.2away
home-2.3
Georgia Southern#117
+4.3away

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMRSH +14.195% interval: -9.8 to 3880% interval: -3.3 to 31.5-3+32CCU wins 17%MRSH wins 83%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MRSH 35–21 CCUMRSH 32–46 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 35–42 CCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMRSH 39–39 CCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMRSH 42–35 CCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMRSH 46–32 CCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMRSH 49–28 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMRSH 53–25 CCU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMRSH 56–21 CCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMRSH 60–18 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 28–42 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 32–39 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMRSH 35–35 CCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMRSH 39–32 CCU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMRSH 42–28 CCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMRSH 46–25 CCU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMRSH 49–21 CCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMRSH 53–18 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMRSH 56–14 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 25–39 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 28–35 CCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMRSH 32–32 CCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMRSH 35–28 CCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMRSH 39–25 CCU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMRSH 42–21 CCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMRSH 46–18 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMRSH 49–14 CCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMRSH 53–11 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 21–35 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 25–32 CCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMRSH 28–28 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMRSH 32–25 CCU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMRSH 35–21 CCU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMRSH 39–18 CCU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMRSH 42–14 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMRSH 46–11 CCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMRSH 49–7 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 18–32 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 21–28 CCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMRSH 25–25 CCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMRSH 28–21 CCU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMRSH 32–18 CCU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMRSH 35–14 CCU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMRSH 39–11 CCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMRSH 42–7 CCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMRSH 46–4 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 14–28 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 18–25 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMRSH 21–21 CCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMRSH 25–18 CCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMRSH 28–14 CCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMRSH 32–11 CCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMRSH 35–7 CCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMRSH 39–4 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMRSH 42–0 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 11–25 CCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMRSH 14–21 CCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMRSH 18–18 CCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMRSH 21–14 CCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMRSH 25–11 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMRSH 28–7 CCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMRSH 32–4 CCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMRSH 35–0 CCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalCCU +14PKMRSH +14MRSH +28MRSH +42margin →