AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#126Away
Coastal Carolina
0-0 · AVR 29.6
26p
#131Home
Georgia State
0-0 · AVR 26.7
29p
CCU 41%59% GAST
Spread
GAST -3.0
Total
56
Moneyline
CCU+143GAST-143
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CCU advantageevenGAST advantage →
CCU throw
CCU WR #42
CCU +46
CCU run
CCU +37
GAST throw
CCU coverage #123CCU pass rush #36
CCU +13
GAST run
CCU front #36CCU linebackers #129
CCU +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Brown
Deylin Hasert
vs
Mitchell Toney
LT · GAST
EDGE · CCU
54.8
82.2
CCU +27
when CCU throws
Tristian Gardner
vs
Deuce Walker
X · CCU
CB1 · GAST
74.7
42.6
CCU +32
when GAST runs
Dennis Murray Jr.
vs
Tray Brown
RB · GAST
MLB · CCU
47.2
63.6
CCU +16
over the middle
Grant Hollier
vs
Donald Quist
TE · GAST
FS · CCU
61.3
45.9
GAST +15
when GAST throws
Jaylin Marshall
vs
Myles Woods
X · GAST
CB1 · CCU
44.1
54.5
CCU +10
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Daughtry Richardson
vs
Kelze Howard
LT · CCU
EDGE · GAST
47.2
46.4
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Coastal Carolina
WRTristian Gardner
74.734/777
LBTray Brown
63.6230/878
DBMyles Woods
54.5635/1427
WRClayton Coppock Jr.
53.9195/777
QBTrever Jackson
52.9125/308
RBDominic Knicely
52.0233/514
Georgia State
TEGrant Hollier
61.340/287
QBCameran Brown
58.277/308
RBDennis Murray Jr.
47.2376/514
WRJaylin Marshall
44.1490/777
WRDerrick Avery Jr.
42.9530/777
SDeuce Walker
42.6961/1427

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Coastal Carolina
opponent
Georgia State
away-13.2
Louisiana#99
-7.7home
home-4.5
Arkansas State#104
-9.0away
home-4.2
App State#103
-8.7away
away-14.1
Marshall#83
-13.6away
home-9.8
Old Dominion#76
-9.3home
away-19.8
James Madison#55
-19.3away
home-2.3
Georgia Southern#117
-1.8home

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKGAST +3.095% interval: -20.9 to 26.980% interval: -14.4 to 20.4-14+20CCU wins 41%GAST wins 59%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ GAST 28–28 CCUGAST 25–53 CCU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesGAST 28–49 CCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGAST 32–46 CCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGAST 35–42 CCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGAST 39–39 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGAST 42–35 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGAST 46–32 CCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGAST 49–28 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGAST 53–25 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGAST 21–49 CCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGAST 25–46 CCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGAST 28–42 CCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGAST 32–39 CCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGAST 35–35 CCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGAST 39–32 CCU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGAST 42–28 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGAST 46–25 CCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGAST 49–21 CCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGAST 18–46 CCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGAST 21–42 CCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGAST 25–39 CCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGAST 28–35 CCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGAST 32–32 CCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGAST 35–28 CCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGAST 39–25 CCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGAST 42–21 CCU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGAST 46–18 CCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGAST 14–42 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 18–39 CCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGAST 21–35 CCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGAST 25–32 CCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGAST 28–28 CCU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGAST 32–25 CCU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGAST 35–21 CCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGAST 39–18 CCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGAST 42–14 CCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGAST 11–39 CCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGAST 14–35 CCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGAST 18–32 CCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGAST 21–28 CCU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGAST 25–25 CCU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGAST 28–21 CCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGAST 32–18 CCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGAST 35–14 CCU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGAST 39–11 CCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGAST 7–35 CCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGAST 11–32 CCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGAST 14–28 CCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGAST 18–25 CCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGAST 21–21 CCU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGAST 25–18 CCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGAST 28–14 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGAST 32–11 CCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGAST 35–7 CCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGAST 4–32 CCU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesGAST 7–28 CCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGAST 11–25 CCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGAST 14–21 CCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGAST 18–18 CCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGAST 21–14 CCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGAST 25–11 CCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGAST 28–7 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGAST 32–4 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalCCU +28CCU +14PKGAST +14GAST +28margin →