AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#76Away
Old Dominion
0-0 · AVR 47.5
33p
#126Home
Coastal Carolina
0-0 · AVR 29.6
23p
ODU 74%26% CCU
Spread
ODU -9.8
Total
55
Moneyline
ODU-291CCU+291
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ODU advantageevenCCU advantage →
ODU throw
CCU coverage #123CCU pass rush #36
CCU +7
ODU run
CCU front #36CCU linebackers #129
ODU +10
CCU throw
CCU WR #42
ODU +29
CCU run
ODU +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CCU throws
Tristian Gardner
vs
Zion Frink
X · CCU
CB1 · ODU
74.7
89.5
ODU +15
when CCU runs
Dominic Knicely
vs
Jackson Forrest
RB · CCU
MLB · ODU
52.0
79.2
ODU +27
when ODU runs
Devin Roche
vs
Tray Brown
RB · ODU
MLB · CCU
64.7
63.6
dead even
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Daughtry Richardson
vs
Javen Gibson
LT · CCU
EDGE · ODU
47.2
73.0
ODU +26
over the middle
Zach Courtney
vs
Mario Easterly
TE · CCU
FS · ODU
34.4
76.5
ODU +42
when ODU throws
TJ Johnson
vs
Myles Woods
X · ODU
CB1 · CCU
53.6
54.5
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Old Dominion
CBZion Frink
89.514/1427
CBBrandon Crutchfield
88.021/1427
SLucas Struck
79.793/1427
LBJackson Forrest
79.264/878
RBDevin Roche
64.775/514
WRTJ Johnson
53.6203/777
Coastal Carolina
WRTristian Gardner
74.734/777
LBTray Brown
63.6230/878
DBMyles Woods
54.5635/1427
WRClayton Coppock Jr.
53.9195/777
QBTrever Jackson
52.9125/308
RBDominic Knicely
52.0233/514

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Old Dominion
opponent
Coastal Carolina
home-2.5
James Madison#55
-19.8away
home+3.2
Marshall#83
-14.1away
away+9.3
Georgia State#131
-3.0away
home+10.0
Georgia Southern#117
-2.3home
away+3.0
App State#103
-4.2home

Projected margin

80% between -27 and 8
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKODU +9.895% interval: -33.7 to 14.180% interval: -27.2 to 7.6-27+8ODU wins 74%CCU wins 26%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ODU 32–25 CCUCCU 21–56 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCCU 25–53 ODU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCCU 28–49 ODU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCCU 32–46 ODU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCCU 35–42 ODU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCCU 39–39 ODU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCCU 42–35 ODU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCCU 46–32 ODU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCCU 49–28 ODU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCCU 18–53 ODU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCCU 21–49 ODU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCCU 25–46 ODU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCCU 28–42 ODU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCCU 32–39 ODU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCCU 35–35 ODU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCCU 39–32 ODU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCCU 42–28 ODU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 46–25 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCCU 14–49 ODU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 18–46 ODU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCCU 21–42 ODU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCCU 25–39 ODU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCCU 28–35 ODU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCCU 32–32 ODU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCCU 35–28 ODU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCCU 39–25 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCCU 42–21 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCCU 11–46 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCCU 14–42 ODU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCCU 18–39 ODU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCCU 21–35 ODU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCCU 25–32 ODU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCCU 28–28 ODU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCCU 32–25 ODU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCCU 35–21 ODU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCCU 39–18 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCCU 7–42 ODU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCCU 11–39 ODU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCCU 14–35 ODU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCCU 18–32 ODU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCCU 21–28 ODU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCCU 25–25 ODU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCCU 28–21 ODU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCCU 32–18 ODU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCCU 35–14 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCCU 4–39 ODU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCCU 7–35 ODU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCCU 11–32 ODU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCCU 14–28 ODU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCCU 18–25 ODU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCCU 21–21 ODU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCCU 25–18 ODU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCCU 28–14 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCCU 32–11 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCCU 0–35 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCCU 4–32 ODU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCCU 7–28 ODU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCCU 11–25 ODU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCCU 14–21 ODU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCCU 18–18 ODU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCCU 21–14 ODU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCCU 25–11 ODU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCCU 28–7 ODU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalODU +35ODU +21ODU +7CCU +7CCU +21margin →