AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#126Away
Coastal Carolina
0-0 · AVR 29.6
20p
#99Home
Louisiana
0-0 · AVR 40.0
33p
CCU 19%81% UL
Spread
UL -13.2
Total
54
Moneyline
CCU+430UL-430
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CCU advantageevenUL advantage →
CCU throw
CCU WR #42UL pass rush #152
CCU +28
CCU run
CCU +30
UL throw
CCU coverage #123CCU pass rush #36
CCU +9
UL run
CCU front #36CCU linebackers #129
CCU +27

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CCU throws
Tristian Gardner
vs
Brent Gordon Jr.
X · CCU
CB1 · UL
74.7
71.4
CCU +3
when UL throws
Shelton Sampson Jr.
vs
Myles Woods
X · UL
CB1 · CCU
74.3
54.5
UL +20
off the edge· hunting Winfield
J'Marion Gooch
vs
Mitchell Toney
LT · UL
EDGE · CCU
40.5
82.2
CCU +42
when UL runs
Darrell Smith
vs
Tray Brown
RB · UL
MLB · CCU
45.8
63.6
CCU +18
when CCU runs
Dominic Knicely
vs
Conor McPherson
RB · CCU
MLB · UL
52.0
54.2
dead even
over the middle
Zach Courtney
vs
Kerry Wilson
TE · CCU
FS · UL
34.4
57.5
UL +23

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Coastal Carolina
WRTristian Gardner
74.734/777
LBTray Brown
63.6230/878
DBMyles Woods
54.5635/1427
WRClayton Coppock Jr.
53.9195/777
QBTrever Jackson
52.9125/308
RBDominic Knicely
52.0233/514
Louisiana
WRShelton Sampson Jr.
74.335/777
CBBrent Gordon Jr.
71.4207/1427
SCollin Jacob
60.3473/1427
SMaurion Eleam
59.4497/1427
LBConor McPherson
54.2404/878
QBLunch Winfield
52.2133/308

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Coastal Carolina
opponent
Louisiana
away-3.0
Georgia State#131
+7.7away
home-4.5
Arkansas State#104
+6.2home

Projected margin

80% between -4 and 31
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUL +13.295% interval: -10.8 to 37.180% interval: -4.2 to 30.5-4+31CCU wins 19%UL wins 81%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UL 35–21 CCUUL 32–46 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUL 35–42 CCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUL 39–39 CCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUL 42–35 CCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUL 46–32 CCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUL 49–28 CCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUL 53–25 CCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUL 56–21 CCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUL 60–18 CCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUL 28–42 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 32–39 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUL 35–35 CCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUL 39–32 CCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUL 42–28 CCU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUL 46–25 CCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUL 49–21 CCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUL 53–18 CCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUL 56–14 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUL 25–39 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 28–35 CCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUL 32–32 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUL 35–28 CCU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUL 39–25 CCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUL 42–21 CCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUL 46–18 CCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUL 49–14 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUL 53–11 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUL 21–35 CCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUL 25–32 CCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUL 28–28 CCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUL 32–25 CCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUL 35–21 CCU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUL 39–18 CCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUL 42–14 CCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUL 46–11 CCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUL 49–7 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 18–32 CCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUL 21–28 CCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUL 25–25 CCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUL 28–21 CCU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUL 32–18 CCU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUL 35–14 CCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUL 39–11 CCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUL 42–7 CCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUL 46–4 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 14–28 CCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 18–25 CCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUL 21–21 CCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUL 25–18 CCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUL 28–14 CCU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUL 32–11 CCU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUL 35–7 CCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUL 39–4 CCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUL 42–0 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUL 11–25 CCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUL 14–21 CCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUL 18–18 CCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUL 21–14 CCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUL 25–11 CCU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUL 28–7 CCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUL 32–4 CCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUL 35–0 CCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalCCU +14PKUL +14UL +28UL +42margin →