AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Thu Oct 15 · 11:30 PM
#117Away
Georgia Southern
0-0 · AVR 33.9
25p
#76Home
Old Dominion
0-0 · AVR 47.5
35p
GASO 25%75% ODU
Spread
ODU -10.0
Total
60
Moneyline
GASO+305ODU-305
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← GASO advantageevenODU advantage →
GASO throw
ODU +45
GASO run
ODU +10
ODU throw
ODU +33
ODU run
GASO front #157GASO linebackers #66
ODU +34

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bryan
Caelan Williams
vs
Javen Gibson
LT · GASO
EDGE · ODU
78.6
73.0
GASO +6
when ODU runs
Devin Roche
vs
Anthony Bynum
RB · ODU
MLB · GASO
64.7
78.1
GASO +13
when GASO throws
Ashton Hollins
vs
Zion Frink
X · GASO
CB1 · ODU
49.2
89.5
ODU +40
when GASO runs
David Mbadinga
vs
Jackson Forrest
RB · GASO
MLB · ODU
50.8
79.2
ODU +28
over the middle
JP Mikhael
vs
Mario Easterly
TE · GASO
FS · ODU
50.3
76.5
ODU +26
when ODU throws
TJ Johnson
vs
Tracy Hill Jr.
X · ODU
CB1 · GASO
53.6
50.9
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia Southern
LBAnthony Bynum
78.180/878
LBMJ Stroud
62.8244/878
QBWeston Bryan
51.6140/308
DBTracy Hill Jr.
50.9747/1427
RBDavid Mbadinga
50.8272/514
TEJP Mikhael
50.3129/287
Old Dominion
CBZion Frink
89.514/1427
CBBrandon Crutchfield
88.021/1427
SLucas Struck
79.793/1427
LBJackson Forrest
79.264/878
RBDevin Roche
64.775/514
WRTJ Johnson
53.6203/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Georgia Southern
opponent
Old Dominion
away+2.3
Coastal Carolina#126
+9.8away
away+1.8
Georgia State#131
+9.3away
home-4.3
Marshall#83
+3.2home
home-9.9
James Madison#55
-2.5home
home-1.5
Louisiana Tech#94
+1.0away
home+0.6
App State#103
+3.0away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKODU +10.095% interval: -13.9 to 33.980% interval: -7.4 to 27.4-7+27GASO wins 25%ODU wins 75%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ODU 35–28 GASOODU 32–53 GASO neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesODU 35–49 GASO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesODU 39–46 GASO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesODU 42–42 GASO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesODU 46–39 GASO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesODU 49–35 GASO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesODU 53–32 GASO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesODU 56–28 GASO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesODU 60–25 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesODU 28–49 GASO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesODU 32–46 GASO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesODU 35–42 GASO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesODU 39–39 GASO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesODU 42–35 GASO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesODU 46–32 GASO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesODU 49–28 GASO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesODU 53–25 GASO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesODU 56–21 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesODU 25–46 GASO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesODU 28–42 GASO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesODU 32–39 GASO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesODU 35–35 GASO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesODU 39–32 GASO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesODU 42–28 GASO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesODU 46–25 GASO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesODU 49–21 GASO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesODU 53–18 GASO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesODU 21–42 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesODU 25–39 GASO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesODU 28–35 GASO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesODU 32–32 GASO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesODU 35–28 GASO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesODU 39–25 GASO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesODU 42–21 GASO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesODU 46–18 GASO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesODU 49–14 GASO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesODU 18–39 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesODU 21–35 GASO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesODU 25–32 GASO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesODU 28–28 GASO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesODU 32–25 GASO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesODU 35–21 GASO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesODU 39–18 GASO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesODU 42–14 GASO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesODU 46–11 GASO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesODU 14–35 GASO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesODU 18–32 GASO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesODU 21–28 GASO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesODU 25–25 GASO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesODU 28–21 GASO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesODU 32–18 GASO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesODU 35–14 GASO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesODU 39–11 GASO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesODU 42–7 GASO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesODU 11–32 GASO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesODU 14–28 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesODU 18–25 GASO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesODU 21–21 GASO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesODU 25–18 GASO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesODU 28–14 GASO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesODU 32–11 GASO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesODU 35–7 GASO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesODU 39–4 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes84777063564942totalGASO +21GASO +7ODU +7ODU +21ODU +35margin →