AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#83Away
Marshall
0-0 · AVR 45.8
33p
#117Home
Georgia Southern
0-0 · AVR 33.9
29p
MRSH 62%38% GASO
Spread
MRSH -4.3
Total
62
Moneyline
MRSH-163GASO+163
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MRSH advantageevenGASO advantage →
MRSH throw
MRSH protection #97
MRSH +56
MRSH run
GASO front #157GASO linebackers #66
even
GASO throw
MRSH +11
GASO run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bryan
Caelan Williams
vs
Braydin Ward
LT · GASO
EDGE · MRSH
78.6
89.6
MRSH +11
when GASO runs
David Mbadinga
vs
Javae Gilmore
RB · GASO
MLB · MRSH
50.8
81.8
MRSH +31
when MRSH runs
Jo'Shon Barbie
vs
Anthony Bynum
RB · MRSH
MLB · GASO
51.6
78.1
GASO +26
when GASO throws
Ashton Hollins
vs
Boogie Trotter
X · GASO
CB1 · MRSH
49.2
79.3
MRSH +30
when MRSH throws
De'Andre Tamarez
vs
Tracy Hill Jr.
X · MRSH
CB1 · GASO
67.4
50.9
MRSH +17
over the middle
JP Mikhael
vs
Daytione Smith
TE · GASO
FS · MRSH
50.3
62.5
MRSH +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Marshall
LBJavae Gilmore
81.843/878
CBBoogie Trotter
79.397/1427
QBCarlos Del Rio-Wilson
76.328/308
DBCharles McCartherens
69.6250/1427
WRDe'Andre Tamarez
67.468/777
CBEddie Pleasant III
67.4293/1427
Georgia Southern
LBAnthony Bynum
78.180/878
LBMJ Stroud
62.8244/878
QBWeston Bryan
51.6140/308
DBTracy Hill Jr.
50.9747/1427
RBDavid Mbadinga
50.8272/514
TEJP Mikhael
50.3129/287

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Marshall
opponent
Georgia Southern
home+14.1
Coastal Carolina#126
+2.3away
home+13.6
Georgia State#131
+1.8away
away-3.2
Old Dominion#76
-10.0away
home+7.3
App State#103
+0.6home
away-8.2
James Madison#55
-9.9home

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMRSH +4.395% interval: -28.2 to 19.680% interval: -21.6 to 13.1-22+13MRSH wins 62%GASO wins 38%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MRSH 35–28 GASOGASO 25–60 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesGASO 28–56 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGASO 32–53 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGASO 35–49 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGASO 39–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGASO 42–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGASO 46–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGASO 49–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGASO 53–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGASO 21–56 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGASO 25–53 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGASO 28–49 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGASO 32–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGASO 35–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGASO 39–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGASO 42–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGASO 46–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGASO 49–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGASO 18–53 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGASO 21–49 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGASO 25–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGASO 28–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGASO 32–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGASO 35–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGASO 39–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGASO 42–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGASO 46–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGASO 14–49 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 18–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGASO 21–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGASO 25–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGASO 28–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGASO 32–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGASO 35–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGASO 39–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGASO 42–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGASO 11–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGASO 14–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGASO 18–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGASO 21–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGASO 25–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGASO 28–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGASO 32–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGASO 35–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGASO 39–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGASO 7–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGASO 11–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGASO 14–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGASO 18–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGASO 21–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGASO 25–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGASO 28–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGASO 32–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGASO 35–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGASO 4–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGASO 7–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGASO 11–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGASO 14–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGASO 18–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGASO 21–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGASO 25–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGASO 28–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGASO 32–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes84777063564942totalMRSH +35MRSH +21MRSH +7GASO +7GASO +21margin →