AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#117Away
Georgia Southern
0-0 · AVR 33.9
31p
#131Home
Georgia State
0-0 · AVR 26.7
29p
GASO 55%45% GAST
Spread
GASO -1.8
Total
60
Moneyline
GASO-120GAST+120
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← GASO advantageevenGAST advantage →
GASO throw
GASO +30
GASO run
GASO +36
GAST throw
GAST +28
GAST run
GASO front #157GASO linebackers #66
GASO +6

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when GAST runs
Dennis Murray Jr.
vs
Anthony Bynum
RB · GAST
MLB · GASO
47.2
78.1
GASO +31
off the edge· hunting Bryan
Caelan Williams
vs
Kelze Howard
LT · GASO
EDGE · GAST
78.6
46.4
GASO +32
off the edge· hunting Brown
Deylin Hasert
vs
Caleb Moore
LT · GAST
EDGE · GASO
54.8
49.3
GAST +6
over the middle
Grant Hollier
vs
Devin Collier
TE · GAST
FS · GASO
61.3
40.6
GAST +21
when GAST throws
Jaylin Marshall
vs
Tracy Hill Jr.
X · GAST
CB1 · GASO
44.1
50.9
GASO +7
when GASO throws
Ashton Hollins
vs
Deuce Walker
X · GASO
CB1 · GAST
49.2
42.6
GASO +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia Southern
LBAnthony Bynum
78.180/878
LBMJ Stroud
62.8244/878
QBWeston Bryan
51.6140/308
DBTracy Hill Jr.
50.9747/1427
RBDavid Mbadinga
50.8272/514
TEJP Mikhael
50.3129/287
Georgia State
TEGrant Hollier
61.340/287
QBCameran Brown
58.277/308
RBDennis Murray Jr.
47.2376/514
WRJaylin Marshall
44.1490/777
WRDerrick Avery Jr.
42.9530/777
SDeuce Walker
42.6961/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Georgia Southern
opponent
Georgia State
home-9.9
James Madison#55
-19.3away
home-4.3
Marshall#83
-13.6away
home+0.6
App State#103
-8.7away
away+2.3
Coastal Carolina#126
+3.0home
away-10.0
Old Dominion#76
-9.3home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKGASO +1.895% interval: -25.7 to 22.180% interval: -19.2 to 15.6-19+16GASO wins 55%GAST wins 45%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ GAST 32–32 GASOGAST 28–56 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 32–53 GASO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGAST 35–49 GASO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGAST 39–46 GASO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGAST 42–42 GASO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGAST 46–39 GASO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGAST 49–35 GASO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGAST 53–32 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGAST 56–28 GASO neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesGAST 25–53 GASO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGAST 28–49 GASO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGAST 32–46 GASO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGAST 35–42 GASO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGAST 39–39 GASO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGAST 42–35 GASO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGAST 46–32 GASO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGAST 49–28 GASO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGAST 53–25 GASO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGAST 21–49 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGAST 25–46 GASO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGAST 28–42 GASO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGAST 32–39 GASO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGAST 35–35 GASO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGAST 39–32 GASO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGAST 42–28 GASO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGAST 46–25 GASO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGAST 49–21 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 18–46 GASO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGAST 21–42 GASO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGAST 25–39 GASO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGAST 28–35 GASO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGAST 32–32 GASO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGAST 35–28 GASO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGAST 39–25 GASO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGAST 42–21 GASO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGAST 46–18 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 14–42 GASO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGAST 18–39 GASO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGAST 21–35 GASO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGAST 25–32 GASO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGAST 28–28 GASO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGAST 32–25 GASO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGAST 35–21 GASO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGAST 39–18 GASO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGAST 42–14 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 11–39 GASO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGAST 14–35 GASO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGAST 18–32 GASO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGAST 21–28 GASO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGAST 25–25 GASO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGAST 28–21 GASO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGAST 32–18 GASO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGAST 35–14 GASO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGAST 39–11 GASO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 7–35 GASO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGAST 11–32 GASO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGAST 14–28 GASO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGAST 18–25 GASO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGAST 21–21 GASO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGAST 25–18 GASO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGAST 28–14 GASO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGAST 32–11 GASO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGAST 35–7 GASO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes84777063564942totalGASO +28GASO +14PKGAST +14GAST +28margin →