CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
GASO 38.9%61.1% GAST
Projected margin
GAST by 4.5
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
GASO 14 to GAST 23
Win probability
GAST 61.1%

Current team profiles

Georgia Southern
Georgia State

When Georgia Southern has the ball

Passing

GAST defense
Higher-ranked profile
GASO offense
#47
GAST defense
#7
EPA comparison
0.28
#47
-0.10
#7
Pass EPA

Rushing

GAST defense
Higher-ranked profile
GASO offense
#107
GAST defense
#73
EPA comparison
0.01
#107
0.05
#73
Rush EPA

Drive success

GAST defense
Higher-ranked profile
GASO offense
#75
GAST defense
#30
Success rates
43%
#75
35%
#30
Success rate
More metrics
0.14
#75
-0.05
#25
EPA / play
1.22
#81
1.20
#60
Explosiveness
17%
#105
20%
#15
Havoc

When Georgia State has the ball

Passing

GAST offense
Higher-ranked profile
GASO defense
#102
GAST offense
#12
EPA comparison
0.26
#102
0.49
#12
Pass EPA

Rushing

GASO defense
Higher-ranked profile
GASO defense
#52
GAST offense
#63
EPA comparison
0.01
#52
0.12
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

GAST offense
Higher-ranked profile
GASO defense
#52
GAST offense
#41
Success rates
39%
#52
47%
#41
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#81
0.24
#32
EPA / play
1.15
#32
1.29
#36
Explosiveness
17%
#52
11%
#14
Havoc

Current key players

Georgia Southern
QBWeston Bryan
13 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
78.782/729
LBMJ Stroud
11 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.4
Coverage
65.9
Pressures
9
Pass-rush snaps
92
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
79.787/1796
DBJakyri Jones
29 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
85.6
Coverage
69.6
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
49
Passer rating allowed
69.1
Missed tackles
4
76.5145/2969
RBTaeo Todd
48 yds · 0 TD · 2.7 YPC
74.1192/1044
DBChace Calicut
15 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
88.7
Coverage
64.8
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
65
Passer rating allowed
62.5
Missed tackles
1
73.2268/2969
WRCam King
1 rec · 18 yds · 0 TD
72.9172/2069
Availability reports · 1
  • Ashton Hollins · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Hollins is liad up with a shoulder injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

Georgia State
QBCameran Brown
1157 yds · 12 TD · 4 INT
90.322/729
LBXavier Esqillion
18 tkl · 8.5 TFL · 7.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
72.9
Coverage
62.0
Pressures
25
Pass-rush snaps
93
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
2
94.22/1796
LBKhalid Feliz
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.3
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
7
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.349/1796
RBDennis Murray Jr.
103 yds · 2 TD · 4.9 YPC
81.164/1044
WRIsaiah Stone
3 rec · 46 yds · 1 TD
75.4119/2069
WRRodshaun Dorsey
18 rec · 276 yds · 6 TD
75.3121/2069
Position units

Position-unit comparison

GASO
GAST
vs
Offense
78.7
#63 of 138
QB
90.3
#21 of 138
73.2
#95 of 138
RB
77.2
#53 of 138
71.3
#70 of 138
WR
74.1
#41 of 138
66.0
#85 of 138
TE
64.8
#91 of 138
67.9
#68 of 138
OL
72.2
#33 of 138
Defense
67.9
#123 of 138
DL
72.4
#78 of 138
73.5
#75 of 138
LB
85.7
#2 of 138
71.7
#73 of 138
DB
69.8
#101 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Georgia Southern
opponent
Georgia State
A-1.8
ODU#130
+32.0H
H-3.0
JMU#51
-16.5A
H+3.5
MRSH#124
0.0A
H+2.6
APP#100
-0.8A
A+7.0
CCU#127
+10.1H