AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 11:00 PM
#131Away
Georgia State
0-0 · AVR 26.7
24p
#105Home
Kennesaw State
0-0 · AVR 38.1
30p
GAST 33%67% KENN
Spread
KENN -6.2
Total
55
Moneyline
GAST+199KENN-199
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← GAST advantageevenKENN advantage →
GAST throw
KENN +12
GAST run
KENN +51
KENN throw
KENN +6
KENN run
KENN +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Brown
Deylin Hasert
vs
Marcus Patterson
LT · GAST
EDGE · KENN
54.8
72.4
KENN +18
when GAST runs
Dennis Murray Jr.
vs
Baron Hopson
RB · GAST
MLB · KENN
47.2
76.2
KENN +29
over the middle
Grant Hollier
vs
Alexander Ford
TE · GAST
FS · KENN
61.3
50.6
GAST +11
when GAST throws
Jaylin Marshall
vs
Kody Jones
X · GAST
CB1 · KENN
44.1
63.2
KENN +19
when KENN throws
Dylan Gary
vs
Deuce Walker
X · KENN
CB1 · GAST
49.2
42.6
KENN +7
when KENN runs
Jonathan Mathis
vs
Jaden Kelly
RB · KENN
MLB · GAST
47.5
39.6
KENN +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia State
TEGrant Hollier
61.340/287
QBCameran Brown
58.277/308
RBDennis Murray Jr.
47.2376/514
WRJaylin Marshall
44.1490/777
WRDerrick Avery Jr.
42.9530/777
SDeuce Walker
42.6961/1427
Kennesaw State
LBBaron Hopson
76.294/878
LBDonovan Westmoreland
70.5137/878
DBKody Jones
63.2400/1427
DBTony Williams Jr.
60.3475/1427
DBIsaac Paul
57.4551/1427
WRDylan Gary
49.2333/777

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKENN +6.295% interval: -17.7 to 30.180% interval: -11.1 to 23.6-11+24GAST wins 33%KENN wins 67%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KENN 32–25 GASTKENN 28–49 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 32–46 GAST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENN 35–42 GAST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKENN 39–39 GAST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENN 42–35 GAST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENN 46–32 GAST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENN 49–28 GAST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENN 53–25 GAST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKENN 56–21 GAST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENN 25–46 GAST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENN 28–42 GAST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENN 32–39 GAST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENN 35–35 GAST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKENN 39–32 GAST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKENN 42–28 GAST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKENN 46–25 GAST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKENN 49–21 GAST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKENN 53–18 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 21–42 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENN 25–39 GAST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENN 28–35 GAST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENN 32–32 GAST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKENN 35–28 GAST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKENN 39–25 GAST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKENN 42–21 GAST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENN 46–18 GAST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENN 49–14 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 18–39 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENN 21–35 GAST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKENN 25–32 GAST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKENN 28–28 GAST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKENN 32–25 GAST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesKENN 35–21 GAST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKENN 39–18 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENN 42–14 GAST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKENN 46–11 GAST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENN 14–35 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENN 18–32 GAST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKENN 21–28 GAST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKENN 25–25 GAST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKENN 28–21 GAST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKENN 32–18 GAST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKENN 35–14 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENN 39–11 GAST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKENN 42–7 GAST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENN 11–32 GAST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENN 14–28 GAST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKENN 18–25 GAST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENN 21–21 GAST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKENN 25–18 GAST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKENN 28–14 GAST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKENN 32–11 GAST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKENN 35–7 GAST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKENN 39–4 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 7–28 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 11–25 GAST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKENN 14–21 GAST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKENN 18–18 GAST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENN 21–14 GAST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKENN 25–11 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENN 28–7 GAST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKENN 32–4 GAST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENN 35–0 GAST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalGAST +21GAST +7KENN +7KENN +21KENN +35margin →